Gale Warning 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

152 
FZAK61 PAFC 191230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 57N
140W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 53N 134W TONIGHT. A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR 56N 157W THIS AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB AND MOVE TO
NEAR 55N 146W SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS HAS HAD BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND WAS PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...

OLD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
DISSIPATES BY THIS EVENING. NEW UPPER CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENSCONSED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
INTERIOR ALASKA. A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA.
FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED PARENT
LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING IN ADVANCE OF BERING SEA FRONT.
SNOW HAS REACHED THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST AND WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BRISTOL BAY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A 990 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 973 MB AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUFFET
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THEN FILL TO 983 MB AS IT CROSSES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SINKS
BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD WESTERLIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY...THEN SWITCHOVER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE EAST...NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO COASTAL
REGIONS AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN COLD AND DRY.

OUT WEST...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BUT WILL ABATE ON MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND 187 191
MARINE... GALE 127 128 155 160 165 170 179 180 185 414
         STORM 411 412 413
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...

ASB NOV 11