Blizzard Watch 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

545 
WWAK42 PAFC 190158 CCA
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

AKZ155-191530-
/X.COR.PAFC.BZ.A.0016.111119T1500Z-111120T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
457 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE IS LIKELY...AND MAY BE REDUCED
  TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...25 TO 35 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

179 
WWAK42 PAFC 190651
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
951 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

AKZ155-192000-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0016.111119T1500Z-111120T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0036.111119T1500Z-111120T0600Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
951 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY
ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.


* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* VISIBILITY...WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT
  TIMES.

* WIND...25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-192000-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.111119T1800Z-111120T0900Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
951 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM
9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...MAINLY WEST OF ILIAMNA.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 25 MPH WILL REDUCE
  VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
  THE MORNING HOURS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
  HOURS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS. &&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS HAS HAD BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND WAS PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...

OLD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
DISSIPATES BY THIS EVENING. NEW UPPER CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENSCONSED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
INTERIOR ALASKA. A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA.
FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED PARENT
LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING IN ADVANCE OF BERING SEA FRONT.
SNOW HAS REACHED THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST AND WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BRISTOL BAY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A 990 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 973 MB AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUFFET
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THEN FILL TO 983 MB AS IT CROSSES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SINKS
BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD WESTERLIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY...THEN SWITCHOVER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE EAST...NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO COASTAL
REGIONS AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN COLD AND DRY.

OUT WEST...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BUT WILL ABATE ON MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND 187 191
MARINE... GALE 127 128 155 160 165 170 179 180 185 414
         STORM 411 412 413
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...

ASB NOV 11