Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Twin Cities, MN

715 
WWUS53 KMPX 141240
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNC153-141300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-100714T1300Z/
TODD MN-
740 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODD COUNTY
UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 738 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOTHO...OR 5
MILES WEST OF LONG PRAIRIE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONG PRAIRIE...BROWERVILLE...GREY EAGLE...GREY EALGE...NORTH
  SHORE...STAPLES...PHILBROOK AND BURTRUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGE WINDOWS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH CAN UPROOT TREES AND DOWN POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9470 4635 9467 4578 9465 4577 9513
      4637 9516 4638 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 262DEG 48KT 4600 9493
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
652 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND JUST NORTH OF +12 DEG C AT 700 MB. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EAST THIS MORNING...HOPEFULLY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR MN CWA AS THE CAP BUILDS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS SD AND REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY.

COMPLICATING MATTER TODAY ARE DEW POINTS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THESE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INTO SD/NE AND WESTERN IA. COUPLE
THAT WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S RESULTS IN
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO
THIS RESULTED IN A HEAT ADVISORY BEING ISSUED. IT WILL BE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER 70S DEW POINTS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY RUNS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES HERE
IN THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY
WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER THE
TWIN CITIES. THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE TO
3KM CAPE AOA 200 J/KG...ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR. LOCAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES SKYROCKET ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
BY 21Z. THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO HAVING A SUPERCELL NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST METRO IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HENCE...A VERY DANGEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS SETTING UP AS STORMS EXPLODE OVERHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH. THESE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WI CWA AND SE MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH PRECIP MAINLY OVER BY 06Z.

LITTLE CHANGED IN THE GRIDS BEYOND TONIGHT WITH ENERGY SPENT ON
THE DAY/EVENING AHEAD. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD THROUGH 03Z THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS TERMINALS. FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS CONVECTION
UP BY AXN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GOING ALL NIGHT SINCE SW NODAK
AND HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW MOVING ACROSS SODAK. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CLIP AXN...STAYING
MOSTLY NORTH...AND BASED ON LOCATION OF 14C ISOTHERM AT H7...IT
SHOULD ALSO STAY NORTH OF STC...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK THROUGH THERE THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...THOUGH EARLY TRANSMISSION FOR
12Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STOUT CAP IS IN PLACE /750 MB WARM
NOSE IS +18C/...WHICH WILL MUDDY THE WATERS TODAY. BASED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ON HRRR SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND 19Z BTWN RWF AND MSP.
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...MLCAPES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG
RANGE WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BE SEVERE. THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT MSP/RNH/EAU. FRONT WILL CLEAR EAU BY 03Z...WHEN ALL TSRA SHOULD
BE DONE. FOR WINDS...WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH 40 KT LLJ
SITTING OVHD...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. DIRECTIONS WILL BE SE TO START AND TEND MORE WRLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE VCNTY
OF THE FIELD HIGH AT THIS POINT...BASED ON FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE RUC NOW SHOWING THE CAP BREAKING AT MSP AROUND 21Z.
HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT IF THE FIELD WILL TAKE A DIRECT
HIT...BUT DENSE COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED AROUND THE TWIN CITIES
WILL LIKELY CREATE HAVOC IN SOME OF THE DEPARTURE/ARRIVAL GATES.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...WILL HAVE VERY QUIET WEATHER TO
END THE TAF AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
     HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
     STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

RAH/MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
422 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

RAH