Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
134 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.UPDATE...

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND JUST NORTH OF +12 DEG C AT 700 MB. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EAST THIS MORNING...HOPEFULLY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR MN CWA AS THE CAP BUILDS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS SD AND REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY.

COMPLICATING MATTER TODAY ARE DEW POINTS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THESE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INTO SD/NE AND WESTERN IA. COUPLE
THAT WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S RESULTS IN
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO
THIS RESULTED IN A HEAT ADVISORY BEING ISSUED. IT WILL BE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER 70S DEW POINTS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY RUNS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES HERE
IN THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY
WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER THE
TWIN CITIES. THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE TO
3KM CAPE AOA 200 J/KG...ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR. LOCAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES SKYROCKET ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
BY 21Z. THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO HAVING A SUPERCELL NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST METRO IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HENCE...A VERY DANGEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS SETTING UP AS STORMS EXPLODE OVERHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH. THESE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WI CWA AND SE MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH PRECIP MAINLY OVER BY 06Z.

LITTLE CHANGED IN THE GRIDS BEYOND TONIGHT WITH ENERGY SPENT ON
THE DAY/EVENING AHEAD. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD THROUGH 03Z THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS TERMINALS. FIRST CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...KMSP SOUTH AND EAST AND IF THE
CLEARING INCREASES TOWARD THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MORE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND SEVERITY. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN GOING IN WISCONSIN NORTH AND EAST OF KRNH AND KEAU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS LOCATED ON THE SD MN BORDER
AND MOVING EAST. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EAST TOWARD
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. 18Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP STILL IN
PLACE AND RADAR IMAGERY..LACK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ECHOS SUPPORTS
THAT. THAT CAP COUPLED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS BIT TROUBLING...IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM KMSP WEST WARD. HRRR SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND 19-20Z
BTWN KRWF AND KMSP. WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...CAPE...INSTABILITY IN THE
3000-5000 J/KG RANGE WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BE SEVERE. THIS WILL
NEED TO MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. FRONT WILL CLEAR
KEAU BY 04-5Z...WHEN ALL TSRA SHOULD BE DONE.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE VCNTY
OF THE FIELD STILL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT...BASED ON
FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RUC NOW SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AT MSP AROUND 21Z. HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT IF THE FIELD
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT...BUT DENSE COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAVOC IN SOME OF THE
DEPARTURE/ARRIVAL GATES. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...WILL
HAVE VERY QUIET WEATHER TO END THE TAF AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
     CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
     WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU
     CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

RAH/DRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF CLEARING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RIVALS WHAT WE SAW
ON JUNE 17 2010 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

DRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N BOYCEVILLE          45.09N 92.04W
07/14/2010                   DUNN               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE OAK TREE BRANCH DOWNED. REPORTED BY COCORAHS
            OBSERVER.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 AM     HAIL             1 W MILTONA             46.04N 95.31W
07/14/2010  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0732 AM     HAIL             4 NNE OSAKIS            45.92N 95.12W
07/14/2010  M1.25 INCH       TODD               MN   PUBLIC

            TODD COUNTY 911 CENTER HAD A REPORT OF LARGER THAN
            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTH END OF LAKE OSAKIS.

0741 AM     HAIL             5 W LONG PRAIRIE        45.98N 94.97W
07/14/2010  M1.00 INCH       TODD               MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0750 AM     HAIL             1 S LONG PRAIRIE        45.97N 94.86W
07/14/2010  M1.00 INCH       TODD               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME HAIL A LITTLE LARGER THAN QUARTERS

0802 AM     HAIL             10 E LONG PRAIRIE       45.98N 94.65W
07/14/2010  M1.75 INCH       TODD               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1040 AM     HAIL             NNE MCKINLEY            45.57N 92.18W
07/14/2010  M0.75 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM     HAIL             3 SE MCKINLEY           45.54N 92.13W
07/14/2010  M0.88 INCH       BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME WAS ESTIMATED

1045 AM     HAIL             HAUGEN                  45.61N 91.78W
07/14/2010  M0.75 INCH       BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN AND HEAVY RAIN WITH DITCHES
            FLOODING

1050 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CUMBERLAND          45.54N 92.06W
07/14/2010                   BARRON             WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY COMMUNITY CENTER. TREE DOWN BLOCKING BOTH
            LANES OF HWY 48 TWO MILES WEST OF CUMBERLAND.

1050 AM     HAIL             2 W CUMBERLAND          45.54N 92.06W
07/14/2010  E1.00 INCH       BARRON             WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT COMMUNITY CENTER.

1050 AM     HAIL             3 W CUMBERLAND          45.54N 92.09W
07/14/2010  M1.00 INCH       BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1059 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW HAMMOND           44.98N 92.47W
07/14/2010                   ST. CROIX          WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA 911 DISPATCH. PUBLIC REPORTED GARAGE
            DESTROYED AND ROOF TAKEN OFF HOUSE ON 86TH AVE 2 MILES
            WNW OF HAMMOND. OTHER REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AT
            INTERSECTION OF 160TH AND HWY 12.

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N BOYCEVILLE          45.09N 92.04W
07/14/2010                   DUNN               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE OAK TREE BRANCH DOWNED. REPORTED BY COCORAHS
            OBSERVER.

1206 PM     FLOOD            RICE LAKE               45.50N 91.74W
07/14/2010                   BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER 1 FT DEEP AT INTERSECTION OF KNAP AVE AND LINDEN
            AVE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             CADOTT                  44.95N 91.15W
07/14/2010  M0.75 INCH       CHIPPEWA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
113 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNZ052-053-061-WIZ014-141900-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-ISANTI-POLK-
113 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

AT 113 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BODUM. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  STACY.
  NORTH BRANCH.
  BRANCH.
  CENTER CITY.
  SHAFER.
  OSCEOLA.
  INTERSTATE 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4565 9287 4565 9254 4530 9255 4530 9301
      4528 9302 4527 9327 4563 9321 4570 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 254DEG 31KT 4546 9307

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMMOND                 44.97N 92.44W
07/14/2010                   ST. CROIX          WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE BETWEEN CO RD TT AND HWY 12.
            TWO HOMES WERE DAMAGED...ONE WITH MAJOR DAMAGE AND ONE
            WITH MINOR DAMAGE.

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ014>016-023>028-142015-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST CROIX-
210 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AT 215 PM RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ST. CROIX RIVER INTO POLK...
ST. CROIX AND PIECE COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 TO 40 MPH.  WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FARTHER EAST FROM
LADYSMITH TO NEAR MENOMONIE.  KEEP AWARE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BAP