Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Twin Cities, MN

259 
WWUS53 KMPX 142126
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNC009-145-142137-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-100714T2145Z/
STEARNS MN-BENTON MN-
426 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN BENTON AND
NORTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4582 9396 4556 9395 4556 9476 4578 9463
      4578 9428 4581 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 268DEG 29KT 4570 9408

$$

BAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
239 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE SHORT TERM AND SEVER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE...MID TO UPPER 70 DEW POINTS THROUGH OUT THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CAP STILL IN PLACE AND IS
HOLDING BACK SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES
ARE BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 J/KG DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO BREAKING OUT OVER NORTHWEST CWA
NEAR AXN...IN RESPONSE TO ERODING CAP AND FRONT. MESO ANALYSIS
FROM SPC SHOWS ERODING CAP. THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED CLOSELY.
HRRR INDICATES CAP WOULD LIKE TO ERODE ENOUGH TO GET MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY 21Z AND RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THIS.
SHEAR AND TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THREAT OF
TORNADOES HIGH FROM 20 TO 23Z IN EASTERN MN. THE ACTIVITY LOCATED
AROUND AXN MOVES EAST WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...CLEARING THE CWA BY 05Z.

LITTLE CHANGED IN THE GRIDS BEYOND TONIGHT WITH ENERGY SPENT ON
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD THROUGH 03Z THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS TERMINALS. FIRST CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...KMSP SOUTH AND EAST AND IF THE
CLEARING INCREASES TOWARD THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MORE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND SEVERITY. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN GOING IN WISCONSIN NORTH AND EAST OF KRNH AND KEAU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS LOCATED ON THE SD MN BORDER
AND MOVING EAST. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EAST TOWARD
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. 18Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP STILL IN
PLACE AND RADAR IMAGERY..LACK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ECHOS SUPPORTS
THAT. THAT CAP COUPLED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS BIT TROUBLING...IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM KMSP WEST WARD. HRRR SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND 19-20Z
BTWN KRWF AND KMSP. WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...CAPE...INSTABILITY IN THE
3000-5000 J/KG RANGE WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BE SEVERE. THIS WILL
NEED TO MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. FRONT WILL CLEAR
KEAU BY 04-5Z...WHEN ALL TSRA SHOULD BE DONE.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE VCNTY
OF THE FIELD STILL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT...BASED ON
FORECASTS FROM SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RUC NOW SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AT MSP AROUND 21Z. HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT IF THE FIELD
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT...BUT DENSE COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAVOC IN SOME OF THE
DEPARTURE/ARRIVAL GATES. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...WILL
HAVE VERY QUIET WEATHER TO END THE TAF AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
     CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
     WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU
     CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

JPR/DRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
150930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF CLEARING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RIVALS WHAT WE SAW
ON JUNE 17 2010 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

DRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             SAUK CENTRE             45.74N 94.96W
07/14/2010  M0.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODVILLE               44.95N 92.29W
07/14/2010                   ST. CROIX          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE LIMBS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES DOWN

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     BOYCEVILLE              45.04N 92.04W
07/14/2010                   DUNN               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY INTERSECTION OF COUNTY RD D AND X NEAR COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOYCEVILLE              45.04N 92.04W
07/14/2010                   DUNN               WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH COUNTY DISPATCH. LARGE TREE GREATER THAN
            1 FOOT DIAMETER UPROOTED.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BALDWIN                 44.96N 92.37W
07/14/2010                   ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 SEMI TRAILERS BLOWN OFF ROAD NEAR BALDWIN. INJURIES
            REPORTED. TREES ALSO DOWN IN AREA.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMPTON                 44.61N 93.00W
07/14/2010                   DAKOTA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 47 AND
            52.

&&

MKM