Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
SKIES WERE CLEAR. SOME FOG HAD FORMED WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT DO
NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THIS MORNING.

AN UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
THINK THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WITH LIGHT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL EVEN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS INCLUDING MEMPHIS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN JUST SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HAVE POPS RANGING FROM
30 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TN RIVER TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
HEAT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL JUST SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A COOLER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO ALSO INDICATE
THIS SCENARIO TO SOME EXTENT BUT IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SHOWN BY THE MEX MOS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SIMILAR WEATHER TO YESTERDAY... CLEAR MORNING SKIES AND ISOLATED
PATCHY LIFR FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AREAWIDE VFR AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY MIDMORNING.

A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY LIKELY SEEING BEST CHANCES. COVERAGE STILL TOO LIMITED TO
TEMPO A TSRA MENTION. HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE WITH A BKN CB GROUP
AT THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  74  90  72 /  20  20  30  20
MKL  92  67  89  66 /  20  20  30  20
JBR  92  68  90  68 /  20  20  30  20
TUP  93  70  90  68 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
414 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TNZ020-021-052-054-241430-
CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-
901 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF BARGERTON AT 901 AM CDT.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...GIBSON...HENDERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LEXINGTON...MILAN...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE
FOREST AND NATCHEZ TRACE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BEECH LAKE AND
PIN OAK LAKE.