Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A LONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SINCE THE
AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF OVER 3000 J/KG. WILL
ADJUST POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
SKIES WERE CLEAR. SOME FOG HAD FORMED WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT DO
NOT THINK THE FOG WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THIS MORNING.

AN UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
THINK THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WITH LIGHT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL EVEN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS INCLUDING MEMPHIS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN JUST SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HAVE POPS RANGING FROM
30 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TN RIVER TO 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
HEAT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL JUST SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A COOLER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO ALSO INDICATE
THIS SCENARIO TO SOME EXTENT BUT IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SHOWN BY THE MEX MOS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

SIMILAR WEATHER TO YESTERDAY... CLEAR MORNING SKIES AND ISOLATED
PATCHY LIFR FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AREAWIDE VFR AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY MIDMORNING.

A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY LIKELY SEEING BEST CHANCES. COVERAGE STILL TOO LIMITED TO
TEMPO A TSRA MENTION. HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE WITH A BKN CB GROUP
AT THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  74  90  72 /  20  20  30  20
MKL  92  67  89  66 /  20  20  30  20
JBR  92  68  90  68 /  20  20  30  20
TUP  93  70  90  68 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

1238 PM     HAIL             2 N GERMANTOWN          35.12N 89.79W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT GERMANTOWN PARKWAY AND TRINITY
            ROAD

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

1238 PM     HAIL             2 N GERMANTOWN          35.12N 89.79W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT GERMANTOWN PARKWAY AND TRINITY
            ROAD

1245 PM     HAIL             2 S BARTLETT            35.19N 89.84W
05/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FROM 1245 TO 1250 ALSO LOTS OF WATER ON
            THE ROAD.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

1238 PM     HAIL             2 N GERMANTOWN          35.12N 89.79W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT GERMANTOWN PARKWAY AND TRINITY
            ROAD

1245 PM     HAIL             2 S BARTLETT            35.19N 89.84W
05/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FROM 1245 TO 1250 ALSO LOTS OF WATER ON
            THE ROAD.

1250 PM     HAIL             1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
05/24/2010  M0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
            AGRICENTER BLDG ON WALNUT GROVE AND GERMANTOWN PKWY

&&

MRM