Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THANKS TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
SBCAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE OHIO RIVER AND NOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE HELPING TO CREATE
STORM MERGERS AND NEW STORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET...LIKE PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING THEN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG SINCE SO MUCH RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX AND MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. EXPECT
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND
MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION RESULTING IN
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. IN REVERSE OF PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF SEEMS TO PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH MORE VIGOR AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST THOUGH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VERY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALSO...THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN SO INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY...AIRMASS MAY DESTABILIZE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

AT ABOUT 2 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME.

AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT...IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
SIZE AND WILL NOT REDEVELOP UNTIL MORNING. WILL NEED TO UPDATE
TAFS WHEN ISOLATED CELLS MOVE NEAR TAF LOCATION.

TLSJR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  90  72  90 /  30  30  20  30
MKL  67  89  66  88 /  30  30  20  30
JBR  69  90  68  89 /  30  30  20  30
TUP  70  90  68  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
155 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

ARZ049-058-242045-
PHILLIPS AR-LEE AR-
316 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MARIANNA AT 316 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
MARIANNA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

MSZ006-TNZ092-242100-
TISHOMINGO MS-HARDIN TN-
328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK
AT 326 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN HARDIN AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
JCOLEMAN STATE PARK AND PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK...AND PICKWICK
LAKE SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

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