Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THANKS TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
SBCAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE OHIO RIVER AND NOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE HELPING TO CREATE
STORM MERGERS AND NEW STORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET...LIKE PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING THEN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG SINCE SO MUCH RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX AND MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. EXPECT
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND
MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION RESULTING IN
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. IN REVERSE OF PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF SEEMS TO PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH MORE VIGOR AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST THOUGH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VERY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALSO...THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN SO INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY...AIRMASS MAY DESTABILIZE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

AT ABOUT 2 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME.

AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT...IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
SIZE AND WILL NOT REDEVELOP UNTIL MORNING. WILL NEED TO UPDATE
TAFS WHEN ISOLATED CELLS MOVE NEAR TAF LOCATION.

TLSJR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  90  72  90 /  30  30  20  30
MKL  67  89  66  88 /  30  30  20  30
JBR  69  90  68  89 /  30  30  20  30
TUP  70  90  68  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
155 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

SJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
234 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

MSZ002-003-242000-
BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-
234 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR...

  BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF HOLLY SPRINGS AT 235 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HOLLY SPRINGS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E0.25 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN MARTIN ALONG WITH 40 MPH

1126 AM     HAIL             MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN TOWN OF MARTIN

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARTIN                  36.34N 88.86W
05/24/2010                   WEAKLEY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN AND ONE BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN MARTIN
            PARTIALLY COLLAPSED DUE TO WIND AND LIGHTNING STRIKES

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E UNION CITY          36.42N 89.03W
05/24/2010  M0.00 MPH        OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            59 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

1238 PM     HAIL             2 N GERMANTOWN          35.12N 89.79W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT GERMANTOWN PARKWAY AND TRINITY
            ROAD

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.23N 90.05W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            FIKE ROAD AND HWY 51 FLOODED

1245 PM     HAIL             2 S BARTLETT            35.19N 89.84W
05/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FROM 1245 TO 1250 ALSO LOTS OF WATER ON
            THE ROAD.

1245 PM     HAIL             3 N GERMANTOWN          35.13N 89.79W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL AT CORDOVA ROAD OFF GERMANTOWN PKWY

1250 PM     HAIL             1 N GERMANTOWN          35.10N 89.79W
05/24/2010  M0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
            AGRICENTER BLDG ON WALNUT GROVE AND GERMANTOWN PKWY

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S MILLINGTON          35.32N 89.89W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            5 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER CAUSING STREET FLOODING...GARBAGE
            CANS FLOATING

0112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S BARTLETT            35.16N 89.84W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            GREENBROOK APARTMENTS ON MACON ROAD FLOODING IN PARKING
            LOT AND BREEZEWAYS OF APARTMENT BUILDINGS

0112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE BARTLETT           35.19N 89.81W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            APPLING ROAD AND BELLUVE BAPTIST CHURCH AREA 2 FEET OF
            WATER ON EITHER SIDE OF ROAD...SPILLING OVER ONTO APPLING
            ROAD

0120 PM     HAIL             COLLIERVILLE            35.06N 89.68W
05/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER HAIL IN COLLIERVILLE

0120 PM     HAIL             S COLLIERVILLE          35.06N 89.68W
05/24/2010  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL NEAR CARRIGE CROSSING MALL

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     STEELE                  36.08N 89.85W
05/24/2010  E60.00 MPH       PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

            ON INTERSTATE 55 WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH

0130 PM     HAIL             15 S HAYTI              36.02N 89.75W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE AMOUNTS OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON INTERSTATE
            55.

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW DYERSBURG          36.09N 89.44W
05/24/2010  E60.00 MPH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

            18 WHEEL TRUCK BLOWN OFF ROAD AND LARGE HIGHWAY SIGNS

            BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 155 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W WYNNE               35.23N 90.82W
05/24/2010                   CROSS              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN AND MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED BY WIND

0144 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE BARTLETT          35.18N 89.82W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            KIRBY WHITTEN ROAD AT HILLSHIRE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

0144 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BARTLETT            35.19N 89.84W
05/24/2010                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER ACROSS KIRBY WHITTEN ROAD AND HILLSHIRE ROAD.CLOSED
            ROAD COMPLETELY.

0218 PM     HAIL             TUNICA                  34.69N 90.38W
05/24/2010  M1.75 INCH       TUNICA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN TUNICA

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUNICA                  34.69N 90.38W
05/24/2010                   TUNICA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON NORTH SIDE OF THE TOWN OF TUNICA

&&

MRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TNZ055-242030-
DECATUR TN-
259 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF DECATURVILLE AT 259 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DECATUR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

MOZ113-242015-
DUNKLIN MO-
305 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER GLENNONVILLE AT 305 PM CDT...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.