Alert archive / Arizona / Tornado Warnings in 2010

Tornado Warning 28, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

October 6, 2010Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this tornado warning at Oct 6, 2010, 12:16 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 6, 2010, 12:16 PM MST (19:16 UTC)
Expired: Oct 6, 2010, 12:45 PM MST
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 6, 9:29 AM MST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 376 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 638 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 320 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

550 
WFUS55 KFGZ 061916
TORFGZ
AZC005-025-061945-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.TO.W.0028.101006T1916Z-101006T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1216 PM MST WED OCT 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SEDONA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM MST

* AT 1211 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BIG PARK...
  OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEDONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MUNDS
  PARK AND INTERSTATE 17 BETWEEN MILEPOST 315 AND 325.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 11175 3498 11140 3466 11165 3471 11187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 210DEG 37KT 3482 11167

$$

RB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Oct 6, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED OCT 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
TORNADOES. THE CURRENT LOW SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHLAND ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

930 AM UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH FOR COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NAVAJO...
APACHE AND GILA COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MST...

IT CONTINUED TO BE A VERY ACTIVE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE/
TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. A CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG LOW SPINS OVER CALIFORNIA.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER JET MAX WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE
KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS...THE STRONGEST AND POTENTIALLY MOST SEVERE TYPE
OF THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...MOST NUMEROUS FROM PRESCOTT...FLAGSTAFF...PAYSON AND PAGE
EARLY SPREADING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST FOR YAVAPAI...COCONINO...GILA...NAVAJO AND
APACHES COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN
DRYING AND STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL
BE CROSSING NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SOME UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE
COULD LINGER...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND
FOR THIS PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...DECREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO BUILD
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 04Z. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY CONTAIN TORNADOES. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
2-4 KFT AGL ACROSS THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...TORNADO WATCH FOR COCONINO...YAVAPAI...GILA...NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MST...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NAVAJO COUNTY TODAY UNTIL
11 AM...

&&

PUBLIC......................MCCOLLUM
AVIATION....................MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 6, 7:20 AM MST, 4 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
720 AM MST WED OCT 6 2010

AZZ004>018-037>040-070715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
720 AM MST WED OCT 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 11 AM MST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. STORMS SOHOULD WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THIS IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RIM THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 6, 10:53 AM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1053 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TORNADO          BELLEMONT               35.23N 111.82W
10/06/2010                   COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 7 INJ *** NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED...INITIAL SURVEY
            INDICATES EF1 DAMAGE.

&&

Local storm report, Oct 6, 11:33 AM MST, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1133 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             KACHINA VILLAGE         35.10N 111.69W
10/06/2010  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000212

DM

Local storm report, Oct 6, 11:46 AM MST, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1146 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N CORDES JUCNTION     34.40N 112.12W
10/06/2010                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY MOTORIST ON I-17

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000213

GFH

Local storm report, Oct 6, 11:56 AM MST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1156 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             MUNDS PARK              34.94N 111.64W
10/06/2010  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000214

OUTLER

Local storm report, Oct 6, 12:01 PM MST, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1201 PM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             RIMROCK                 34.65N 111.75W
10/06/2010  M1.25 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PARK SERVICE

            TRAIL CLOSED DUE TO HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000215

OUTLER

Local storm report, Oct 6, 12:12 PM MST, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1212 PM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TORNADO          2 S MUNDS PARK          34.91N 111.64W
10/06/2010                   COCONINO           AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000216

DM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 5, 9:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	19 min
Oct 5, 9:57 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	18 min
Oct 5, 10:40 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	6 hr
Oct 5, 11:04 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	6 hr
Oct 6, 12:34 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	26 min
Oct 6, 1:08 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Yavapai	22 min
Oct 6, 1:33 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Yavapai	12 min
Oct 6, 1:58 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	17 min
Oct 6, 2:17 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	118 min
Oct 6, 3:40 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	35 min
Oct 6, 4:00 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	45 min
Oct 6, 4:38 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	37 min
Oct 6, 5:07 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	38 min
Oct 6, 5:30 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	45 min
Oct 6, 5:59 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	46 min
Oct 6, 6:36 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	39 min
Oct 6, 6:53 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	22 min
Oct 6, 6:58 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	32 min
Oct 6, 7:18 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	27 min
Oct 6, 7:31 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	44 min
Oct 6, 7:33 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	27 min
Oct 6, 7:42 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	33 min
Oct 6, 7:46 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	44 min
Oct 6, 8:06 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	24 min
Oct 6, 8:06 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	39 min
Oct 6, 8:14 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	46 min
Oct 6, 8:19 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	26 min
Oct 6, 8:19 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	26 min
Oct 6, 8:29 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	46 min
Oct 6, 8:32 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	28 min
Oct 6, 8:49 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	26 min
Oct 6, 8:53 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	37 min
Oct 6, 9:00 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	45 min
Oct 6, 9:05 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	25 min
Oct 6, 9:25 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	35 min
Oct 6, 9:30 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	45 min
Oct 6, 9:43 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	32 min
Oct 6, 10:00 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	45 min
Oct 6, 10:08 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Oct 6, 10:13 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	62 min
Oct 6, 10:14 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	46 min
Oct 6, 10:32 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	43 min
Oct 6, 10:35 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	40 min
Oct 6, 10:51 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	39 min
Oct 6, 11:01 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	29 min
Oct 6, 11:15 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	45 min
Oct 6, 11:24 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	41 min
Oct 6, 11:29 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	31 min
Oct 6, 11:34 AM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	26 min
Oct 6, 12:01 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	44 min
Oct 6, 12:09 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	36 min
Oct 6, 12:11 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	34 min
Oct 6, 12:47 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	16 min
Oct 6, 1:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	31 min
Oct 6, 1:17 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	43 min
Oct 6, 1:39 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	36 min
Oct 6, 2:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	19 min
Oct 6, 2:16 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	14 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Arizona, 2010 Every tornado warning in 2010 Tornadoes in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.