Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST TUE OCT 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER THIS
EVENING WILL BE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT LOW WILL THEN HEAD EASTWARD BY THURSDAY...LEAVING BEHIND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...ALONG WITH 40
KNOT UPSLOPE WINDS...AND DECENT SHEAR. THE FIRST S/WV AND ASSOCIATED
JET THAT BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED
WELL NORTH OF ARIZONA. A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK OVER TUCSON
WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA SHORTLY...AND WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

AFTER A BRIEF PAUSE AROUND MIDNIGHT...ONE LAST JET STREAK WILL ENTER
THE WEST COAST AROUND THE LOW...AND MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH A MORE
ZONAL ORIENTATION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
TO THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL START MOVING EAST.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY DECREASING.

WE HAVE SENT OUT MINOR UPDATES TONIGHT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...ALL
ELSE LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A KGCN-KPRC-KPAN LINE...SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFT 15Z. LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ARE LIKELY
NEAR STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE...NON-CONVECTIVE DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE S-SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC......................PETERSON
AVIATION....................LATTO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
600 AM MST SAT OCT 30 2010

AZZ004>018-037>040-310700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
600 AM MST SAT OCT 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SAND ARE POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE
40 BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND WINSLOW...ALONG HIGHWAY 89 NORTH OF
FLAGSTAFF...AND HIGHWAY 160 ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1255 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             1 NE PAYSON             34.25N 111.31W
10/05/2010  E1.75 INCH       GILA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJORITY OF HAIL MEASURED IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE...
            LARGEST STONE AT 2.25.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000198

41