Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST WED OCT 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. THE CURRENT LOW SHOULD
CROSS THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE EARLY MORNING AS LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZ. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A BROAD LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA...AND A SMALL VORT MAX NEAR PARKER
AZ MOVING NORTHWARD HELPING TO KICK OF THE CONVECTION.

FOR TODAY...A SECOND VORT MAX SHOULD ROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN AZ. OVERALL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND OR HAIL. DRIER AIR IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SHOW A DECREASING CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.
LOOK FOR SOUTH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROGS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING AND
STABILIZING THE AIRMASS. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW IS STILL CROSSING THE
NORTHLAND WITH SOME UPWARD MOTION AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND
FOR THIS PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...DECREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO BUILD
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPS
WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A KGCN-KPRC LINE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ARE LIKELY NEAR STRONGER
STORMS...OTHERWISE...NON-CONVECTIVE DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT
15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING
AFT 00Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC......................DL
AVIATION....................CLEMMONS

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
600 AM MST SAT OCT 30 2010

AZZ004>018-037>040-310700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
600 AM MST SAT OCT 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SAND ARE POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE
40 BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND WINSLOW...ALONG HIGHWAY 89 NORTH OF
FLAGSTAFF...AND HIGHWAY 160 ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1255 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             1 NE PAYSON             34.25N 111.31W
10/05/2010  E1.75 INCH       GILA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJORITY OF HAIL MEASURED IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE...
            LARGEST STONE AT 2.25.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000198

41

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE CLINTS WELL        34.61N 111.25W
10/06/2010                   COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN...HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 296 AND
            298... POSSIBLE TORNADO

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000199

TEC