Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS NEAR TERM HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AND RAIN CHANCES REMAINDER OF DAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE EARLY MORNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND FLASH
FLOOD HEADLINES. BOTH NAM AND GFS LINING UP WELL WITH LATEST
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN HOLDING E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED BAND OF
STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE DUE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF BORDER AND
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE WILL BE
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION WITH MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. FAVORED
AREA FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION DURING AM WILL BE ALONG I94 CORRIDOR
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. FOR REMAINDER OF
DAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FA. FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SE FA
BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT FA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVE DROPS
THROUGH NW MID LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEEK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NW FLOW.
TIMING THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS THROUGH
MID/LONGER RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AM IS STRONG WINDS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-039-049-052-054-281200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-WEST BECKER-TOWNER-
CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028>032-040-NDZ053-281200-
LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-RICHLAND-
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BEMIDJI TO FERGUS FALLS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO FERGUS FALLS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END BY 6PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
141 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TORNADO          REILE'S ACRES           46.92N 96.86W
07/27/2010                   CASS               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOUCHDOWN REPORTED NEAR REILES ACRES. MULTIPLE FUNNELS
            VIEWED BY SPOTTER LOCATED NORTH OF WEST FARGO.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
143 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 S FARGO               46.83N 96.82W
07/27/2010  M72 MPH          CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED AT UNIVERSITY AND 32ND AVE SOUTH.

&&

GGUST

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NDZ038-039-049-271145-
BARNES ND-CASS ND-RANSOM ND-
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS...EASTERN
BARNES AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN RANSOM COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND 50 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ORISKA...NOME AND FINGAL AROUND 605 AM CDT.
TOWER CITY AND LUCCA AROUND 610 AM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKER 292 AROUND 555 AM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 312 AROUND 615 AM
CDT...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND GST     BUFFALO                 46.92N 97.55W
07/27/2010  M67 MPH          CASS               ND   MESONET

            NDDOT RWIS NEAR BUFFALO ND

&&

ROGERS