Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS NEAR TERM HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AND RAIN CHANCES REMAINDER OF DAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE EARLY MORNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND FLASH
FLOOD HEADLINES. BOTH NAM AND GFS LINING UP WELL WITH LATEST
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN HOLDING E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED BAND OF
STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE DUE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF BORDER AND
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE WILL BE
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION WITH MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. FAVORED
AREA FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION DURING AM WILL BE ALONG I94 CORRIDOR
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. FOR REMAINDER OF
DAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FA. FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SE FA
BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT FA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVE DROPS
THROUGH NW MID LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEEK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NW FLOW.
TIMING THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS THROUGH
MID/LONGER RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AM IS STRONG WINDS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

MNZ004-005-007-008-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-054-271945-
KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS CONTINUALLY
DEVELOP OVER AN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MNZ001>003-006-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ026>030-038-039-
049-052-053-271945-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
123 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW GREENBUSH          48.78N 96.31W
07/26/2010                   ROSEAU             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN FARMYARD.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
138 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TORNADO          REILE'S ACRES           46.92N 96.86W
07/27/2010                   CASS               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOUCHDOWN REPORTED NEAR REILES ACRES.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
141 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TORNADO          REILE'S ACRES           46.92N 96.86W
07/27/2010                   CASS               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOUCHDOWN REPORTED NEAR REILES ACRES. MULTIPLE FUNNELS
            VIEWED BY SPOTTER LOCATED NORTH OF WEST FARGO.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
143 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 S FARGO               46.83N 96.82W
07/27/2010  M72 MPH          CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED AT UNIVERSITY AND 32ND AVE SOUTH.

&&

GGUST

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