Tornado Warning 89, NWS Grand Forks, ND

470 
WWUS53 KFGF 270218
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
918 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

NDC019-095-270300-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-100727T0300Z/
CAVALIER ND-TOWNER ND-
918 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
TOWNER AND SOUTHERN CAVALIER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 913 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MUNICH...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALSEN AROUND 925 PM CDT.
  LOMA AROUND 940 PM CDT.
  DRESDEN AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  LANGDON AND NEKOMA AROUND 955 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4883 9900 4883 9820 4855 9822 4856 9860
      4856 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 271DEG 23KT 4863 9875

$$

GODON/HOPPES

017 
WWUS53 KFGF 270231
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

NDC019-095-270300-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-100727T0300Z/
CAVALIER ND-TOWNER ND-
931 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
TOWNER AND SOUTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 928 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF
ALSEN...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 
MPH. AT 855 PM CDT...2 FOOT DIAMETER TREES WERE DOWN IN MUNICH NORTH 
DAKOTA. 

THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LOMA AROUND 940 PM CDT.
  DRESDEN AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  LANGDON AND NEKOMA AROUND 955 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4883 9900 4883 9820 4855 9822 4856 9860
      4856 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 271DEG 23KT 4864 9862

$$

GODON/HOPPES

776 
WWUS53 KFGF 270251
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

NDC095-270301-
/O.CAN.KFGF.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-100727T0300Z/
TOWNER ND-
951 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TOWNER COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4881 9853 4883 9820 4855 9822 4856 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 272DEG 28KT 4863 9829

$$

NDC019-270300-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-100727T0300Z/
CAVALIER ND-
951 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CAVALIER COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEKOMA...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35
MPH.

THE TORNADIC STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL CAVALIER
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4881 9853 4883 9820 4855 9822 4856 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 272DEG 28KT 4863 9829

$$

VG

440 
WWUS53 KFGF 270300
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

NDC019-270310-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-100727T0300Z/
CAVALIER ND-
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL CAVALIER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4881 9853 4883 9820 4855 9822 4856 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 272DEG 28KT 4862 9818

$$

GODON/HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
800 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...WARM 850MB TEMPS ARE ACTING TO INHIBIT THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH STRONGER FORCING FROM
MID-LEVEL WAVE...UPPER JET STREAK...AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD PROPAGATION...AND EXPECT
THUNDER INTO THE DVL BASIN BY 02Z-03Z. GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO BE PROBABLE.
THIS ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY WILL CONTINUE A MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
CURRENT GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE
FORECAST. NORTHERN FA MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
GIVEN SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGES TO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTMS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
THE TAFS. WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE IN QUESTION...DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE CB TO THE CLOUD GROUP DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR KDVL...AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MOST
PROBABLE TIME PERIOD. OVERALL WOULD APPEAR BEST CHC NEAR 03Z AT
KDVL...06Z-12Z KGFK-KTVF AREAS...A BIT LATER KBJI-KFAR. BRIEF
MVFR CIG PSBL NEAR OR JUST AFTER ANY TSTM DUE TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BUT OVERALL VFR WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AOA 60KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO CANADA...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY CAPPED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE TIMING...BUT ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
INTO TUESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...EXPECT CAPPING TO WEAKEN IN THE
NW AND NRN CWA TOWARDS 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH TO
EXTREME...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR IS
AMPLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...AND CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
SHEAR. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE NW ADDING DYNAMIC
LIFT. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...AND WITH A FAIRLY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH IN THE PAST
WEEK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. EXPECT A POSSIBLE
SEVERE MCS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND DIVE SE AND
ACCELERATE AFTER 06Z. WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTH
THROUGH 06Z...AND IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUE IN THE SOUTH
FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PWATS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 2
INCHES IN THE SOUTH...SO A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HERE CAN/T BE
RULED OUT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

FOR WED...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION.

FOR THU...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOLLOWED HPC FOR THE MOST PART IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  DID MODIFY
THE SKY GRIDS TO HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GIVEN.  USING
BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS SHOWS BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU CANADA EVERY 2-3 DAYS.  SRN EDGE
OF THE 70-90KT 250 MB WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. WITH ERN ND/NW MN ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF LIFT ASSOC WITH THESE
WAVES.  ONE SUCH PCPN CHANCE WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  AS USUAL...EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS TO
REMAIN UNCERTAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENT.  AT THIS TIME...THEY BOTH
DONT APPEAR TO BE UNUSUALLY STRONG.  TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007-008.

&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

MNZ004-005-007-008-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-054-271945-
KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS CONTINUALLY
DEVELOP OVER AN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MNZ001>003-006-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ026>030-038-039-
049-052-053-271945-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
235 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

DK