River Flood Warning 48, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS NEAR TERM HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AND RAIN CHANCES REMAINDER OF DAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE EARLY MORNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND FLASH
FLOOD HEADLINES. BOTH NAM AND GFS LINING UP WELL WITH LATEST
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN HOLDING E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED BAND OF
STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE DUE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF BORDER AND
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE WILL BE
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION WITH MAIN AREA OF CONCERN. FAVORED
AREA FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION DURING AM WILL BE ALONG I94 CORRIDOR
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. FOR REMAINDER OF
DAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FA. FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SE FA
BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT FA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVE DROPS
THROUGH NW MID LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEEK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NW FLOW.
TIMING THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS THROUGH
MID/LONGER RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AM IS STRONG WINDS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.

MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-039-049-052-054-281200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-WEST BECKER-TOWNER-
CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028>032-040-NDZ053-281200-
LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-RICHLAND-
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BEMIDJI TO FERGUS FALLS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO FERGUS FALLS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END BY 6PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

NDZ038-039-049-271145-
BARNES ND-CASS ND-RANSOM ND-
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS...EASTERN
BARNES AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN RANSOM COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND 50 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ORISKA...NOME AND FINGAL AROUND 605 AM CDT.
TOWER CITY AND LUCCA AROUND 610 AM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKER 292 AROUND 555 AM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 312 AROUND 615 AM
CDT...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND GST     BUFFALO                 46.92N 97.55W
07/27/2010  M67 MPH          CASS               ND   MESONET

            NDDOT RWIS NEAR BUFFALO ND

&&

ROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
802 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 AM     HAIL             SEBEKA                  46.63N 95.09W
07/27/2010  E0.88 INCH       WADENA             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PROGERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
812 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ003-NDZ039-271400-
CASS ND-CLAY MN-
812 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND EASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL
900 AM CDT...

AT 811 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HORACE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARGO...MOVING TO
THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FARGO...MOORHEAD AND WILD RICE AROUND 820 AM CDT.
DILWORTH AND RUSTAD AROUND 825 AM CDT.
SABIN AROUND 830 AM CDT.
GLYNDON AROUND 835 AM CDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

WJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E DAZEY               47.19N 98.18W
07/27/2010                   BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO GRAIN BINS...SEVERAL LOFTED AND DESTROYED.
            LARGE PINE UPROOTED AND TREES STRIPPED. DESCRIPTION OF
            DAMAGE RESEMBLES TORNADO BUT WILL ASSESS UPON VISITATION
            TO AREA

&&

MEWENS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ003-029>031-271530-
CLAY MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WILKIN MN-
942 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL...EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN WILKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM
CDT...

AT 936 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF PELICAN RAPIDS...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF
FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MAPLEWOOD STATE PARK...LAKE LIDA AND DUNVILLA AROUND 950 AM CDT.
VERGAS AND BIG MCDONALD LAKE AROUND 1000 AM CDT.
DENT AROUND 1005 AM CDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

WJB