Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Dodge City, KS

898 
WWUS53 KDDC 070559
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

KSC051-195-070615-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-100607T0615Z/
TREGO KS-ELLIS KS-
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ELLIS AND CENTRAL TREGO COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1255 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TREGO CENTER...AND MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OGALLAH...
  RIGA...
  ELLIS...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL TREGO AND WESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 10011 3900 9976 3901 9945 3878 9951
      3889 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 282DEG 44KT 3887 9975
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SEVERAL FCST CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THIS
FORECAST. FIRST IS TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WERE STARTING TO RISE IN THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE EML WAS STARTING TO SPREAD EAST DURING THE
DAY. WHAT IS BOTHERSOME IS THAT THE SFC WARM FRONT OR REMNANTS OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FROM WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT. THERE
WERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. I JUST DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE THE WARMING ALOFT AS THEY MOVE
EAST. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS DEEPENING IN THE TX
PANHANDLE AND IF THIS GETS INGESTED INTO THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX
THEN STORMS COULD SURVIVE AND SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LATER
TONIGHT STORMS FARTHER NORTH COULD "RIDE" THE EDGE OF THE
EXPANDING EML AND WOULD IMPACT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-70. THESE
TWO AREAS WILL BE NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THEN ON MONDAY IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (I.E., 17C-19C AT 70H) WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MY CWA.
WITH AMPLE MIXING SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND AS HIGH AS 105, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT POSES ANOTHER CHALLENGE. MODELS HINT AT A SFC
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH
THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT S/WV TROUGH, HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION
WILL HAVE AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (THAT WILL HAVE POOLED
NORTH OF THE FRONT) TO FEED ON. THEREFORE, I SUSPECT THAT AN MCS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE BUT IT WOULD AGAIN STAY ALONG OR NORTH OF THE
WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WITH HAYS AND WAKEENEY BEING ON THE SOUTHERN
END. I WILL HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

DAYS 3-7...

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH FA, BUT THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AND EAST FA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
POPS NORTH AND EAST TO COVER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING THEN
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE NEW
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THE CURRENT GFS ON THE FRONT INTO WESTERN
KANSAS ON SATURDAY. WILL ADD 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK FOR LOW TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE EXPECTED
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY THE LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S WEST TO
THE MID 60S EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
80S NORTH TO THE MID 90S SOUTHWEST FA. HIGH TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING DECREASES AND THE MID LEVEL WARM CAPPING
INVERSION INCREASES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TAFS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOK FOR VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66 100  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66 102  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67 103  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67 103  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  64  98  71  88 /  20  20  20  20
P28  68  99  76  94 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN07/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071130-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010 /955 PM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 500 AM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LARNED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL TOP 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 100 TO 103 DEGREES. THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTH A DIGHTON TO A
RUSH CENTER LINE. ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP IN THIS AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

IN ADDITION...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY
TO JETMORE TO STAFFORD LINE. AT THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP EITHER TUESDAY OR LATE WEDNESDAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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