Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

GOING TO FOCUS ON THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RIGHT NOW AND THAT IS THE
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL AND CONTINUED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ONGOING RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE TWO
MAIN FEATURES THAT WE ARE WATCHING.

THE FIRST IS A STUBBORN BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BUBBLE HIGH IS PROVIDING TWO
SCENARIOS TO THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THAT IT IS KEEPING THE
NORTHEAST A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SECOND IS
THAT IS PROVIDING SOME EXTRA CONVERGENCE THAT IS RESULTING IN
OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
OVER-RUNNING HAS ALLOWED TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND PRODUCED VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. THESE HAVE BEEN COVERED WITH AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING OVER A PERIOD OF 12 PLUS HOURS. WHAT THIS
DOES IS RESULTS IN A SLOWER RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THESE ARE NOT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...THESE WARNINGS ARE JUST
AS DANGEROUS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODING PLEASE TURN AROUND AND DO
NOT DROWN. SOME REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN CENTERED AROUND
SHELBY COUNTY HAVE FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY NOW SOUTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO MONTGOMERY LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S. NUMEROUS SUPER CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND CROSS OVER THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
ROTATION WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED. MOST OF THE CELLS ARE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES NORTH.

THIS SYSTEM AND AIRMASS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYLINE WORKS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SO RAISED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. STILL MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HAD
ISSUES WITH TCL AND EET WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT THEY ARE BACK
AT ONE HUNDRED PERCENT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL NOW BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  70  49  68  44 / 100  80  30  70  40
ANNISTON    55  69  52  70  45 / 100  80  30  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  57  72  53  69  42 / 100  80  30  60  30
TUSCALOOSA  61  76  53  70  43 / 100  60  30  40  20
CALERA      58  73  52  70  44 / 100  60  30  60  30
AUBURN      57  70  54  71  44 / 100  80  40  60  30
MONTGOMERY  59  76  54  74  47 / 100  70  40  50  30
TROY        59  75  53  73  47 / 100  70  40  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-111300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1218 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN ALABAMA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JASPER...
TO CENTREVILLE...TO SELMA.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE TIME OF
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.  THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             PRATTVILLE              32.46N 86.45W
03/10/2010  E0.50 INCH       AUTAUGA            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND FLOODING AT WASHINGTON AND WETUMPKA
            STREETS NEAR PRATTVILLE ELEMENTARY.

&&

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