River Flood Warning 17, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS OF THIS WRITING...BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WERE PROVIDING PLENTY OF VERTICAL
MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
TRANSITION VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT
TRAINING CELLS WILL OCCUR WELL AFTER SUNRISE....WITH LESSER
ORGANIZATION NOTED LATER. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES OR
MORE. NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY... BUT
WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION
TO THE AREAS AND TIMING OF RAIN.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STRAIGHT JET STREAM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER
DIFFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...ANOTHER MORE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY
BESIDES THIS TROUGH AND ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL INCH TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS BACK UP THIS EVENING. UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH SOME
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM MONTGOMERY TO
TUSCALOOSA TO HALEYVILLE. THESE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WINDS... HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE
WHERE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGE PIN-WHEELING UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF HAVE ANOTHER SPOKE
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND HAVE ADDED 40-60 POPS. TRUE
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS THEREAFTER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
HOW CLOSE THE UPPER GETS TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AS THERE COULD BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION WILL BE TREACHEROUS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2300 AND 04Z AND
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH...HAIL...BLINDING RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE TCL ASOS IS HAVING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS.  WROTE A RATHER
PESSIMISTIC TAF AND ADDED AMD NOT SKED UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE
FIXED.

12/SIRMON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

75/75/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-111230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON
TODAY WITH ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FLASH FLOODING. REMEMBER
TO NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVES THE ROADWAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
MONTGOMERY TO TUSCALOOSA TO HALEYVILLE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
502 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PELHAM                  33.30N 86.79W
03/10/2010                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BISHOP CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS. THE WATER HAD REACHED
            UP TO THE BOTTOM OF A FEW VEHICLES IN THE AREA.

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALABASTER               33.25N 86.82W
03/10/2010  E2.50 INCH       SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSED PONDING OF WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 17 JUST
            SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 44.

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
505 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HELENA                  33.29N 86.85W
03/10/2010  E2.50 INCH       SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS HIGHWAY 261 NEAR
            THE CONCRETE COMPANIES.

&&

LINHARES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
826 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE WILSONVILLE        33.21N 86.44W
03/10/2010                   TALLADEGA          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF MCGOWANS
            FERRY ROAD.

&&

REM