Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

184 
WGUS74 KBMX 101141
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ALC117-101230-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100310T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHELBY AL-
541 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CST FOR
SHELBY COUNTY...

AT 540 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER CONTINUED TO DETECT A
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WESTOVER...
VINCENT...VERIZON MUSIC CENTER AT OAK MOUNTAIN...VANDIVER...OAK
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...MOUNT LAUREL...MEADOWBROOK...INDIAN SPRINGS
VILLAGE...HIGHLAND LAKES...HARPERSVILLE...GREYSTONE...FOWLER LAKE AND
CHELSEA. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH IN THE NEXT 
HOUR OR SO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3335 8636 3332 8637 3309 8685 3324 8697
      3353 8650

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS OF THIS WRITING...BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WERE PROVIDING PLENTY OF VERTICAL
MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
TRANSITION VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT
TRAINING CELLS WILL OCCUR WELL AFTER SUNRISE....WITH LESSER
ORGANIZATION NOTED LATER. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES OR
MORE. NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY... BUT
WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION
TO THE AREAS AND TIMING OF RAIN.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STRAIGHT JET STREAM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS JET WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER
DIFFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...ANOTHER MORE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY
BESIDES THIS TROUGH AND ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL INCH TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS BACK UP THIS EVENING. UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH SOME
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM MONTGOMERY TO
TUSCALOOSA TO HALEYVILLE. THESE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WINDS... HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE
WHERE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGE PIN-WHEELING UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF HAVE ANOTHER SPOKE
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND HAVE ADDED 40-60 POPS. TRUE
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS THEREAFTER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
HOW CLOSE THE UPPER GETS TO NORTHERN ALABAMA AS THERE COULD BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING SLIGHTLY CLEARER AT ISSUANCE WITH ALL SITES
AT IFR CIG-WISE...OR LOOKING TO GO IFR SHORTLY.  VIS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR EXCEPT DURING THE SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WHEN
2SM COULD BE EXPERIENCED.

PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY STAGNANT...WHICH MEANS PRETTY CONSTANT
RA WITH SCATTERED TS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  WENT WITH VCTS AT ALL
SITES BECAUSE OF THE ON AND OFF NATURE OF TS.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  55  68  44  69 / 100 100  60  20  60
ANNISTON    62  55  70  47  71 / 100 100  60  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  64  57  72  48  70 / 100 100  50  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  70  59  75  48  70 / 100 100  30  20  50
CALERA      65  57  73  47  70 / 100 100  40  20  50
AUBURN      65  54  68  49  72 /  90 100  60  20  50
MONTGOMERY  70  59  75  49  74 / 100 100  40  20  50
TROY        69  57  74  48  73 /  90 100  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

75/75/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
722 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-110124-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
722 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD
BUT COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

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