Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MINOT AND
GARRISON...BUT AS THE MODELS ADVERTISED THE FRONT HAS STAGNATED
OVER THE BISMARCK AREA RESULTING IN A TILTED FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THE STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. GOOD CAPE
AND SHEAR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A K INDEX OF 35 OR
BETTER ALSO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY
SOME STORMS WILL PROMPT A SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORY...BUT IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS...MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING. THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WHICH IS
MOVING EAST...SO EVEN THOUGH THE DEWPOINTS AT WILLISTON AND
DICKINSON HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 50 DEGREES...CONTINUE TO SEE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE WEST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AGAIN...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. RIDGING ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO ALLOW UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOWS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FOR OFF AND ON
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WITH LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. WEDNESDAY THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. STRONG WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             10 N NAPOLEON           46.65N 99.77W
07/13/2010  M0.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND
            GUST.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW STREETER           46.73N 99.46W
07/13/2010  E70 MPH          KIDDER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WINDS BLEW EXTREMELY STRONG FOR 30 MINUTES, BARNS BLOWN
            DOWN AND ALSO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW STREETER           46.73N 99.46W
07/13/2010  M2.62 INCH       KIDDER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.62 INCHES RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 SSE CLEVELAND        46.73N 99.02W
07/13/2010  M1.75 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

VROLLER

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