Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1031 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
DICKEY...LAMOURE...AND LOGAN COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW APPROXIMATELY FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST. THE NAM INDICATES THAT THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO START IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH THEN MOVE EAST. THE
K INDEX IS AROUND 35 INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...SO HAVE UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS AND
MONTANA/WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS...ONGOING SINCE TUESDAY
EVENING...WERE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WAS
ADVECTING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR...AND HELPING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWS IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO PEMBINA AND TOWARDS
WINNIPEG. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. SOME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED OR WILL BE RECEIVING SOME HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAY
RECEIVE MORE HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS
INTENSE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING 20 TO 35 MPH
WINDS WEDNESDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

ON THURSDAY THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO ONTARIO AND WEAK
RIDGING IN THE UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WARMER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODEL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
DETAILS. A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING/DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS 55 TO
65.

AVIATION...A SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AERODROMES KISN/KDIK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH MINOT AND BISMARCK AROUND 18Z...AND FINALLY REACHING
JAMESTOWN KJMS AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AN AREA
OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WAS OVER KJMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT AND WILL AFFECT KBIS AND KMOT BEFORE 18Z TODAY...AND WILL
SPREAD TO KJMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY KBIS TO KJMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS KISN AND KDIK TODAY...WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

HYDROLOGY...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LARGEST THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AREAS
AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044-141045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010 /443 AM MDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO MANITOBA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-045>048-050-051-141045-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT WITH FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO MANITOBA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW RAY               48.47N 103.35W
07/13/2010                   WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUONSET DOOR BLOWN IN.

&&

JMETZ