Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MINOT AND
GARRISON...BUT AS THE MODELS ADVERTISED THE FRONT HAS STAGNATED
OVER THE BISMARCK AREA RESULTING IN A TILTED FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THE STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. GOOD CAPE
AND SHEAR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A K INDEX OF 35 OR
BETTER ALSO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY
SOME STORMS WILL PROMPT A SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORY...BUT IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS...MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING. THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WHICH IS
MOVING EAST...SO EVEN THOUGH THE DEWPOINTS AT WILLISTON AND
DICKINSON HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 50 DEGREES...CONTINUE TO SEE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE WEST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AGAIN...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. RIDGING ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO ALLOW UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOWS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FOR OFF AND ON
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WITH LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. WEDNESDAY THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. STRONG WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044-141045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010 /443 AM MDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO MANITOBA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-045>048-050-051-141045-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT WITH FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO MANITOBA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW RAY               48.47N 103.35W
07/13/2010                   WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUONSET DOOR BLOWN IN.

&&

JMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
222 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             10 N NAPOLEON           46.65N 99.77W
07/13/2010  M0.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND
            GUST.

&&

VROLLER