Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WELL AS A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...SO
HAVE UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT
OF A LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AS ITS SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

CURRENTLY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS RESULTED FROM RETURN FLOW
BEHIND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA. A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW AT 500 MB HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE DOWN THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND IS BRINGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LEVELS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY TO TAP INTO MODEL FORECAST CAPE VALUES OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SO
DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY BOWING
LINES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
PRODUCED SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THINKING THAT UNLESS WE SEE A LITTLE SOMETHING FIRE
WITH MAX HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN THREAT FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WATCH PERIOD.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THE CENTER OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL
FORECASTS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD KEEP
CONVECTION ALIVE AND STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS
IT PASSES OVER BISMARK AND MINOT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN INCREASES INSTABILITIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO ALSO KEEP WINDS ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO SEE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 80S WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
HEIGHT FIELDS AMONGST THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE OVERALL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD BEYOND SATURDAY. DESPITE THAT
STILL A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE FORECASTING
TIMING AND DETAILS. FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY BROAD RIDGE LOOKS TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY DURING THE DAY...BUT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ALONG SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT HAS SUPPORT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO NEARLY
A ZONAL FLOW COMMENCES ON SUNDAY FOR A DRY DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND UPPER 80S
SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 55
TO 60 THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AERODROMES KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 09Z-12Z TUESDAY...THEN PASSING THROUGH
MINOT AND BISMARCK BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...AND FINALLY
REACHING JAMESTOWN KJMS AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AERODROMES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS KISN/KDIK WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY...THEN 06Z-15Z TUESDAY IN KMOT/KBIS...AND
15Z-00Z FOR KJMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY SLOW MOVERS.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WE HAVE DRIED OUT SOME MOST AREAS
THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WILL ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SIMOSKO
HYDROLOGY...HAMILTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>035-040>045-140230-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
SIOUX-
918 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 /818 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051-140230-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
918 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

KS

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