Storm Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 31, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

047 
FZAK52 PAFC 311200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 941 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF MON MORNING. A 980 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
MOVES TO 120 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON AND
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-010000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-010000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 50 KT E OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 19 FT E OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 


$$

PKZ160-010000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-010000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18
FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-010000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 35 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...16 FT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...18 FT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 40 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...18 FT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 30, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE MONSTER LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. INITIALIZATION
FROM THE 12Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARING
THE PRESSURE WITH THE LITTLE DATA THAT IS OUT THERE. THE ONE SYSTEM
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL IS SOUTH OF SEWARD AND PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION.
THIS LOW IS NOT RESOLVED ON ANY OF THE MODELS BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ON SHORE IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THE JET STREAM WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA
IS UNSTABLE AND THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
GULF. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LARGE LOW IS THAT IT
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND AREAS AFFECTED ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM.
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT FOG BUT
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD REDUCE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVER THE STATE...MEANING THAT THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR MOST AREAS WITH AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND RESPECTIVELY. A
PERSISTENT STRONG JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 141 165 171 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 150 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.