Gale Warning 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 31, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

554 
FZAK62 PAFC 311203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 61N 170W MOVES TO 58N 166W THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON AND
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-010000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-010000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 30, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE MONSTER LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. INITIALIZATION
FROM THE 12Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARING
THE PRESSURE WITH THE LITTLE DATA THAT IS OUT THERE. THE ONE SYSTEM
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL IS SOUTH OF SEWARD AND PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION.
THIS LOW IS NOT RESOLVED ON ANY OF THE MODELS BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ON SHORE IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THE JET STREAM WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA
IS UNSTABLE AND THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
GULF. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LARGE LOW IS THAT IT
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND AREAS AFFECTED ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM.
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT FOG BUT
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD REDUCE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVER THE STATE...MEANING THAT THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR MOST AREAS WITH AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND RESPECTIVELY. A
PERSISTENT STRONG JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 141 165 171 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 150 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every gale warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.