Storm Warning 210, NWS Anchorage, AK

438 
FZAK51 PAFC 311526 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

UPDATE TO ZONES 120 121 130 138 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A 941 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
MOVES TO 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 958 MB MON MORNING
AND MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AT 982 MB TUE
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-010000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010000-
RESURRECTION BAY
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010000-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-010000-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO E
25 KT SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT EXCEPT 16
FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT EXCEPT 15 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010000-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT BY AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND
30 KT...SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010000-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

642 
FZAK51 PAFC 311559 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

CORRECTION TO HEADLINE ZONE 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A 941 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
MOVES TO 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 958 MB MON MORNING
AND MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AT 982 MB TUE
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-010000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010000-
RESURRECTION BAY
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010000-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-010000-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO E
25 KT SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT EXCEPT 16
FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT EXCEPT 15 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010000-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT BY AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND
30 KT...SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010000-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE MONSTER LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. INITIALIZATION
FROM THE 12Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARING
THE PRESSURE WITH THE LITTLE DATA THAT IS OUT THERE. THE ONE SYSTEM
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL IS SOUTH OF SEWARD AND PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION.
THIS LOW IS NOT RESOLVED ON ANY OF THE MODELS BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ON SHORE IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THE JET STREAM WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA
IS UNSTABLE AND THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
GULF. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LARGE LOW IS THAT IT
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND AREAS AFFECTED ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM.
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT FOG BUT
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD REDUCE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVER THE STATE...MEANING THAT THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR MOST AREAS WITH AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND RESPECTIVELY. A
PERSISTENT STRONG JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 141 165 171 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 150 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10