Storm Warning 209, NWS Anchorage, AK

081 
FZAK51 PAFC 310425 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
820 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

UPDATED ZONES 130 140 AND 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311200-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ON SHORE 
THIS EVENING. A 940 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL 
MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 944 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND 
THEN TO 125 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 965 MB MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-311200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-311200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT EXCEPT 15 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
820 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311200-
KACHEMAK BAY
820 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE MONSTER LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. INITIALIZATION
FROM THE 12Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARING
THE PRESSURE WITH THE LITTLE DATA THAT IS OUT THERE. THE ONE SYSTEM
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL IS SOUTH OF SEWARD AND PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION.
THIS LOW IS NOT RESOLVED ON ANY OF THE MODELS BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ON SHORE IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EVEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THE JET STREAM WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA
IS UNSTABLE AND THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
GULF. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LARGE LOW IS THAT IT
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND AREAS AFFECTED ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM.
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY STILL SEE SOME OVERNIGHT FOG BUT
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD REDUCE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVER THE STATE...MEANING THAT THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR MOST AREAS WITH AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND RESPECTIVELY. A
PERSISTENT STRONG JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 141 165 171 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 150 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10