High Wind Watch 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU SEP 30 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION THAT THEY ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT PATH OF THE MAJOR
LOW IN THE GULF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE EXTENDED THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE THROUGH ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY...THEN TAKE DIVERGENT
PATHS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION ALONG ABOUT 160 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES COMBINING TO BRING A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
FROM JAPAN TO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND SOME WINDS...BUT THE MAJOR SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE
GULF ON FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING UP AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE 150 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO
AROUND 960 MB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
EXACT PATH OF THIS LOW IS STILL A MATTER OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MEAN LOW POSITION IS RIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION COMPARED
TO THE LOW. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. NEARER
THE ALASKA RANGE...WARM EAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS RAIN. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
THOUGH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130.
         GALE WARNING 125 129 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 10