Gale Warning 705, NWS Anchorage, AK

928 
FZAK51 PAFC 300321 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
720 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

UPDATED ZONES 121 129 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301200-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW 65 NM NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AT
992 MB WED NIGHT AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 980 MB LOW 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK THU AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE TO
70 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 960 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-301200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301200-
RESURRECTION BAY
720 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SOUTH WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-301200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301200-
PASSAGE CANAL
715 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
720 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. WIND SHIFTING TO SE 25 KT S OF KALGIN
ISLAND BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 7 FT S OF 
KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN IMPACTIVE DIFFERENCES OCCUR. IN MANY CASES THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WOULD NOT BE THAT BIG OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE DIFFERENCE
IN BRINGING THE LOW OVER THE MAIN PART OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH THE 12
GFS IS SHOWING TO OTHER MODELS BRINGING IT OVER THE HOMER AREA TO
OTHERS SHOWING THE BARREN ISLANDS IS LARGE. THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER EVEN AFTER THE FRIDAY DAY PERIOD SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. BEST
GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLAND REGION...BUT THAT EXPECTATION COULD CHANGE AS IT APPROACHES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
OUT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO AROUND 40N 165W. THE 250 MB JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM THE
TIP OF KAMCHATKA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE IT DIVES RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS TROUGH. THERE IS A SHARP BEND IN THE JET AS IT
HEADS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SECTION OF THE JET IS DISTINCTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
40N 160W THROUGH 50N 150W. THE IR IMAGERY IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE
SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION.
THIS IS THE AREA WHERE A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY.
THE CYCLONIC MOTION SEEN ON THE SATELLITE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
SHELIKOF STRAIT IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT BRINGS RAINFALL AND WARMER AIR INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND KODIAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON THE LOW NEAR
SHELIKOF STRAIT THAT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW ABSORBS
IT TOMORROW. THIS WARM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
FROM THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST. WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF WARM AIR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN BY
THIS EVENING. THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND WESTWARD WILL SEE A SLOW WARM
UP INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AREAS WEST OF
BETHEL WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN EVEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET
REALLY INTERESTING FOR THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THE DEVELOPING STORM THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLIER IS STILL GIVING THE
MODELS FITS AND THEREFORE QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE. WHAT CAN BE COUNTED ON IS THAT THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL GET HIT HARD WITH A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE AREA
JUST OUTSIDE RESURRECTION BAY. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PASSAGE CANAL
MIGHT SEE STORM FORCE WINDS IF THE STORM TRACK MOVES FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...BUT WILL ONLY SEE GALES IF IT PROCEEDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ONE FROM A WEEK AGO THAT
CAUSED THE WIND STORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS THAT THE STORM LAST
WEEK WAS PUSHING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THIS CAUSED A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE STORM APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE CURRENT LOW AND THEREFORE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NOT OVER
THE LAND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES FROM GULF OF ALASKA REGION THROUGH EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SEP 10