Gale Warning 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK52 PAFC 300327 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

UPDATED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301200-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 65 NM NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY 
AT 992 MB WED NIGHT AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 960 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ150-301200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-301200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
725 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-301200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 40 KT WEST OF 160W. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT WEST OF 160W. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-301200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-301200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-301200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-301200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-301200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-301200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-301200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-301200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 29 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN IMPACTIVE DIFFERENCES OCCUR. IN MANY CASES THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WOULD NOT BE THAT BIG OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE DIFFERENCE
IN BRINGING THE LOW OVER THE MAIN PART OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH THE 12
GFS IS SHOWING TO OTHER MODELS BRINGING IT OVER THE HOMER AREA TO
OTHERS SHOWING THE BARREN ISLANDS IS LARGE. THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER EVEN AFTER THE FRIDAY DAY PERIOD SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. BEST
GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLAND REGION...BUT THAT EXPECTATION COULD CHANGE AS IT APPROACHES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
OUT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO AROUND 40N 165W. THE 250 MB JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM THE
TIP OF KAMCHATKA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE IT DIVES RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS TROUGH. THERE IS A SHARP BEND IN THE JET AS IT
HEADS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SECTION OF THE JET IS DISTINCTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
40N 160W THROUGH 50N 150W. THE IR IMAGERY IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE
SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION.
THIS IS THE AREA WHERE A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY.
THE CYCLONIC MOTION SEEN ON THE SATELLITE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
SHELIKOF STRAIT IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT BRINGS RAINFALL AND WARMER AIR INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND KODIAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON THE LOW NEAR
SHELIKOF STRAIT THAT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW ABSORBS
IT TOMORROW. THIS WARM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
FROM THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST. WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF WARM AIR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN BY
THIS EVENING. THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND WESTWARD WILL SEE A SLOW WARM
UP INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AREAS WEST OF
BETHEL WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN EVEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET
REALLY INTERESTING FOR THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THE DEVELOPING STORM THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLIER IS STILL GIVING THE
MODELS FITS AND THEREFORE QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE. WHAT CAN BE COUNTED ON IS THAT THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL GET HIT HARD WITH A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE AREA
JUST OUTSIDE RESURRECTION BAY. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PASSAGE CANAL
MIGHT SEE STORM FORCE WINDS IF THE STORM TRACK MOVES FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...BUT WILL ONLY SEE GALES IF IT PROCEEDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ONE FROM A WEEK AGO THAT
CAUSED THE WIND STORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS THAT THE STORM LAST
WEEK WAS PUSHING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THIS CAUSED A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE STORM APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE CURRENT LOW AND THEREFORE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NOT OVER
THE LAND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES FROM GULF OF ALASKA REGION THROUGH EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SEP 10