Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 151317
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
817 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSC117-131-151327-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-090515T1330Z/
NEMAHA-MARSHALL-
817 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 817 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3987 9619 3960 9606 3956 9648 3964 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 244DEG 27KT 3972 9618

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

00Z UA ANALYSIS AT 850 MB SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
JUST NORTH OF HUTCHINSON TO FORT SCOTT LINE. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SINCE 05Z THE LLJ HAS INCREASE FROM 30KTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 07Z. ELEVATED STORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NEHAMA
AND BROWN COUNTIES AT 08Z. LATEST RUC HAS A THETA-E MAXIMA FROM
850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z. EXPECTING EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT.
BY MID MORNING EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

NEXT AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MLCAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CIN WILL GO AWAY IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS
AND RAIN THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL HELICITY MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A ISOLATED TORNADO.

BY 00Z SAT THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
TO NEAR TOPEKA SOUTHWEST TO COUNCIL GROVE AND WICHITA. CONTINUED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. WITH
THE THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST. STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID EVENING...SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES CURRENTLY.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
ON SATURDAY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN OCCURS INTO MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY.

NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN TS IS INCREASING WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DO NOT
THINK PRECIP WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THE IFR CIGS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THINK
MODELS ARE DOING THIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IFR
CIGS ARE STILL PRETTY FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OK. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINING WELL MIXED...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 KFT.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN TS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
506 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ011-012-150830-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
245 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEMAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 330 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEMAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ONEIDA...WOODLAWN...SABETHA...
FAIRVIEW...MORRILL...HAMLIN...HIAWATHA AND RESERVE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ009-021-022-151215-
CLAY-RILEY-WASHINGTON-
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WASHINGTON...CLAY AND RILEY
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 715 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON...CLAY AND RILEY
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE GREEN AND RANDOLPH.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ008-020-151200-
CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR REPUBLIC AND CLOUD COUNTIES...

THROUGH 700 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF REPUBLIC AND CLOUD COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
GLASCO AND CONCORDIA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ038-039-054-055-151215-
LYON-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...OSAGE AND LYON
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 715 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...OSAGE AND LYON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HARVEYVILLE...BURLINGAME AND
SCRANTON. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
139 AND 166 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO
TAKE SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
733 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ009-010-151300-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
733 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WASHINGTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE WATERVILLE...BARNES AND BLUE RAPIDS.

LEIGHTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
735 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ010-023-151300-
MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-
735 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARSHALL AND POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE LILLIS.

LEIGHTON