Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST...SFC CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF I-70 AND EXTENDED WEST TO THE COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT
INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER ANY SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES.

THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL
INTO A SQUALL LINE BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE OFB BECOMES STATIONARY. ONCE THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 03Z...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND ADVECT IN A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

GARGAN

SUNDAY - MONDAY...500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD...WHILE
BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...LEAVING NE KS
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND
A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH
COOL...POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE. MONDAY ON TRACK TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH REESTABLISHMENT OF THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...FOCUS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE ON GRADUAL
FLATTENING OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CANADA. A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MEANDERS OVER NEBRASKA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF OSCIALLTION TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...BUT LITTLE FORCING IN THE WAY TO KICK THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE REGION. MESOSCALE DETAILS TOUGH TO PINPOINT...AND WITH
PRIMARY...ALBEIT STILL WEAK FORCING FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOUND LITTLE REASON TO ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL BE MILD...AND IN THE LOWER
80S FOR THE MOST PART.

LUNDE

&&

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST...SFC CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF I-70 AND EXTENDED NORTH TO THE COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS
THAT INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
TORNADOES. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

GARGAN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GARGAN/LUNDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
326 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCING TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             N CARBONDALE            38.83N 95.69W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             BALDWIN CITY            38.78N 95.18W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             E CARBONDALE            38.82N 95.68W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             3 SSW AUBURN            38.86N 95.83W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY 1 IN. RAINFALL IN 25 MINUTES.

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
555 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE READING           38.55N 95.89W
05/15/2009  E80 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JTL