Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 151919
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
219 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSC013-152015-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090515T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN-
219 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR BROWN
COUNTY...

AT 146 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER OVER 
KESTREL ROAD SOUTH OF RESERVE. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THIS 
MORNING MAY STILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND COUNTY ROADS 
TO FLOOD.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVEREST...FAIRVIEW...HIAWATHA...HORTON...RESERVE...ROBINSON 
...WILLIS....KICKAPOO RESERVATION AND IOWA SAC AND FOX RESERVATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9532 3965 9532 3964 9533 3964 9554
      3965 9579 4000 9578 3999 9533

$$

GARGAN

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 152007
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSC013-152015-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090515T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN-
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BROWN COUNTY...

AT 305 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THE RAIN HAS 
ENDED IN BROWN COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER OCCURRING AND 
RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO RECEDE. 
THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. 

LAT...LON 3999 9532 3965 9532 3964 9533 3964 9554
      3965 9579 4000 9578 3999 9533

$$

KONOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

00Z UA ANALYSIS AT 850 MB SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
JUST NORTH OF HUTCHINSON TO FORT SCOTT LINE. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SINCE 05Z THE LLJ HAS INCREASE FROM 30KTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 07Z. ELEVATED STORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NEHAMA
AND BROWN COUNTIES AT 08Z. LATEST RUC HAS A THETA-E MAXIMA FROM
850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z. EXPECTING EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT.
BY MID MORNING EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

NEXT AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MLCAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CIN WILL GO AWAY IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS
AND RAIN THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL HELICITY MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A ISOLATED TORNADO.

BY 00Z SAT THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
TO NEAR TOPEKA SOUTHWEST TO COUNCIL GROVE AND WICHITA. CONTINUED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. WITH
THE THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST. STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID EVENING...SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES CURRENTLY.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
ON SATURDAY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN OCCURS INTO MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY.

NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN TS IS INCREASING WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DO NOT
THINK PRECIP WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THE IFR CIGS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THINK
MODELS ARE DOING THIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IFR
CIGS ARE STILL PRETTY FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OK. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINING WELL MIXED...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 KFT.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN TS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
506 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND THEN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     HAIL             SSE BAILEYVILLE         39.84N 96.18W
05/15/2009  M0.50 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HAIL             SSE BAILEYVILLE         39.84N 96.18W
05/15/2009  M0.88 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             SENECA                  39.83N 96.06W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     HAIL             SENECA                  39.83N 96.06W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     FLOOD            SENECA                  39.83N 96.06W
05/15/2009                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL STREETS IN SENECA ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HAIL             1 ENE SENECA            39.84N 96.05W
05/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL