River Flood Warning 36, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

00Z UA ANALYSIS AT 850 MB SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
JUST NORTH OF HUTCHINSON TO FORT SCOTT LINE. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SINCE 05Z THE LLJ HAS INCREASE FROM 30KTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 07Z. ELEVATED STORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NEHAMA
AND BROWN COUNTIES AT 08Z. LATEST RUC HAS A THETA-E MAXIMA FROM
850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z. EXPECTING EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT.
BY MID MORNING EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

NEXT AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MLCAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CIN WILL GO AWAY IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS
AND RAIN THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL HELICITY MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A ISOLATED TORNADO.

BY 00Z SAT THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI
TO NEAR TOPEKA SOUTHWEST TO COUNCIL GROVE AND WICHITA. CONTINUED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. WITH
THE THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST. STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID EVENING...SO NOT PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES CURRENTLY.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
ON SATURDAY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN OCCURS INTO MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY.

NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN TS IS INCREASING WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DO NOT
THINK PRECIP WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THE IFR CIGS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THINK
MODELS ARE DOING THIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IFR
CIGS ARE STILL PRETTY FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OK. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINING WELL MIXED...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 KFT.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN TS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161730-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HAIL             WHITING                 39.59N 95.61W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     HAIL             HORTON                  39.66N 95.53W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY THE HORTON...KS POLICE DEPARTMENT

&&

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SW SENECA               39.83N 96.07W
05/15/2009  M2.75 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
148 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     FLOOD            3 S RESERVE             39.93N 95.56W
05/15/2009                   BROWN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KESTREL ROAD SOUTH OF RESERVE...KS WAS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
202 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ026-151945-
JEFFERSON-
202 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NORTONVILLE AND WINCHESTER.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      E HIAWATHA              39.85N 95.54W
05/15/2009                   BROWN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING OF A SMALL STREAM CAUSED WATER TO FLOW
            ACROSS HIGHWAY 73 JUST EAST OF HIAWATHA. THE ROAD WAS
            BRIEFLY CLOSED BUT IS NOW OPEN.

&&

GARGAN