Tropical Storm Warning 2, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HAS CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA...AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A FORECAST LANDFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FORECAST (LATE
TONIGHT).

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IDA ARE NOW BEING DETECTED BY MOBILE
RADAR...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BAND (ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA) THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND 70 TO 90 PERCENT COVERAGE
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM HPC...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES EAST OF THE RIVER...AND FROM
ONE-HALF TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE RIVER. A THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RAIN BANDS REACH THE COAST. /22

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY STARTS WITH THE CENTER OF IDA
MOVING ONSHORE ON THE ESCAMBIA COUNTY...FL COASTLINE(PER LATEST NHC
FORECAST) AS A LOW END CAT 1. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS
FORECAST...SO AM MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT.
WITH IDA MOVING OVER MID 70 DEGREE WATERS CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND
INCREASING SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.

AS IDA MOVES ONSHORE...AND GETS SWEPT UP BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT OFF...WITH THE AREA CLEARING OUT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE FA COMES UNDER A DRY
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS/MAV FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWING ARE
BUMPING TEMPS DOWN A BIT TUESDAY....AND POPS UP FOR THE SAME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WEST SWIRLS AROUND AND ORGANIZES INTO AN
UPPER LOW...WITH ANOTHER MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
ORGANIZING INTO A STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST...AS THE TWO
CLOSED SYSTEMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAVE PUSHED EAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE WITH THE PATH/SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE GFS ADVERTISING A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING///WHILST
THE ECMWF HAS IT STARTING ACROSS THE MISS DELTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 18Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HURRICANE IDA APPROACHES THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PENSACOLA TAF SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH HURRICANE
IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CREATE STRONG
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA BEYOND 20 NM FROM
SHORE LATER THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE
INSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT. SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IDA BY
LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS IDA MOVES
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IDA. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH IDA WILL CREATE HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER IDA...OR THE REMAINS THEREOF MOVE
OFF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  63  73  52  74 /  60 100  30  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  66  72  52  76 /  80 100  40  05  00
DESTIN      73  68  71  60  75 /  80 100  50  10  00
EVERGREEN   69  63  69  49  75 /  40 100  50  05  00
WAYNESBORO  69  60  70  47  73 /  50  80  40  00  00
CAMDEN      69  61  68  48  74 /  40 100  60  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
     MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WILCOX.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

22/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-101500-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

   UNTIL IDA HAS MOVED INLAND PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT FROM THE NWS IN MOBILE FOR DETAILED LOCAL INFORMATION.
ALSO...GRAPHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR SURGE...WIND...TORNADO AND HEAVY RAINFALL
INDUCED FLOODING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GHLS AND CLICK ON THE MOBILE AREA

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF IDA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO LAY DOWN AFTER THAT TIME.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON IDA.

MEDLIN