River Flood Warning 74, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 100416
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY. 

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. 

  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 

  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

.ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO
 CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MANY RIVERS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC097-101851-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0076.091110T1048Z-091110T1851Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.091110T1048Z.091110T1200Z.091110T1251Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 7AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.0 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 4.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
AT 4 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS BEGINS AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE 
RAILROAD WHEN THE LEVEL REACHES 5 FEET.  

$$

ALC003-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0069.091110T2248Z-091111T0748Z/
/FSHA1.1.ER.091110T2248Z.091111T0000Z.091111T0148Z.UU/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.1 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 11.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC033-091-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0070.091111T0414Z-091111T2159Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.091111T0414Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1559Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0071.091110T2244Z-091111T0700Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.091110T2244Z.091111T0000Z.091111T0100Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.091112T1200Z-091114T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091112T1200Z.091113T0000Z.091113T1800Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 17.2 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.091111T0951Z-091113T0000Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.091111T0951Z.091112T0000Z.091112T1800Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 12.8 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

FLC091-113-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.091111T0900Z-091112T0200Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.091111T0900Z.091111T1200Z.091111T2000Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 10.2 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

FLC091-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0075.091111T1048Z-091113T0900Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.091111T1048Z.091112T0000Z.091113T0300Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 101030
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
430 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...
 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC091-113-111030-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.091111T0400Z-091112T0000Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.091111T0400Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1800Z.NO/
430 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 4AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  10.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 101542
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY. 
  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 
  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-110600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0069.091111T0000Z-091111T0600Z/
/FSHA1.1.ER.091111T0000Z.091111T0000Z.091111T0000Z.UU/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 8AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 11.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  EVENING.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC033-091-111541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0070.091111T0440Z-091111T1912Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.091111T0440Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1312Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  22.4 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-110508-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0071.091110T1726Z-091111T0508Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.091110T1726Z.091110T1800Z.091110T2308Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS EVENING
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 12.6 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-111541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.091111T2100Z-091113T1500Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091111T2100Z.091112T0600Z.091113T0900Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-111541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.091110T2116Z-091111T1642Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.091110T2116Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1042Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

$$

FLC091-113-111541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.091111T0417Z-091111T2200Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.091111T0417Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1600Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  10.2 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

$$

FLC091-111541-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0075.091111T0712Z-091113T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.091111T0712Z.091111T1800Z.091112T1800Z.NO/
942 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AT 8.0 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 110214
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
814 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND 
  SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.
  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-110244-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-091111T1642Z/
/BAKF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
814 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET
AT 9.5 FEET, KENNEDY AND PEADEN BRIDGES FLOODED UPSTREAM.  

$$

FLC091-113-110244-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-091111T2200Z/
/MLNF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
814 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HAS CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA...AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A FORECAST LANDFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FORECAST (LATE
TONIGHT).

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IDA ARE NOW BEING DETECTED BY MOBILE
RADAR...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BAND (ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA) THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND 70 TO 90 PERCENT COVERAGE
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM HPC...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES EAST OF THE RIVER...AND FROM
ONE-HALF TO 2 INCHES WEST OF THE RIVER. A THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RAIN BANDS REACH THE COAST. /22

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY STARTS WITH THE CENTER OF IDA
MOVING ONSHORE ON THE ESCAMBIA COUNTY...FL COASTLINE(PER LATEST NHC
FORECAST) AS A LOW END CAT 1. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS
FORECAST...SO AM MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT.
WITH IDA MOVING OVER MID 70 DEGREE WATERS CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND
INCREASING SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.

AS IDA MOVES ONSHORE...AND GETS SWEPT UP BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT OFF...WITH THE AREA CLEARING OUT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE FA COMES UNDER A DRY
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS/MAV FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWING ARE
BUMPING TEMPS DOWN A BIT TUESDAY....AND POPS UP FOR THE SAME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WEST SWIRLS AROUND AND ORGANIZES INTO AN
UPPER LOW...WITH ANOTHER MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
ORGANIZING INTO A STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST...AS THE TWO
CLOSED SYSTEMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAVE PUSHED EAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE WITH THE PATH/SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE GFS ADVERTISING A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING///WHILST
THE ECMWF HAS IT STARTING ACROSS THE MISS DELTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 18Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HURRICANE IDA APPROACHES THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PENSACOLA TAF SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH HURRICANE
IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CREATE STRONG
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA BEYOND 20 NM FROM
SHORE LATER THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE
INSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT. SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IDA BY
LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS IDA MOVES
INLAND NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IDA. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH IDA WILL CREATE HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER IDA...OR THE REMAINS THEREOF MOVE
OFF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  63  73  52  74 /  60 100  30  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  66  72  52  76 /  80 100  40  05  00
DESTIN      73  68  71  60  75 /  80 100  50  10  00
EVERGREEN   69  63  69  49  75 /  40 100  50  05  00
WAYNESBORO  69  60  70  47  73 /  50  80  40  00  00
CAMDEN      69  61  68  48  74 /  40 100  60  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
     MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WILCOX.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

22/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-101500-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

   UNTIL IDA HAS MOVED INLAND PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT FROM THE NWS IN MOBILE FOR DETAILED LOCAL INFORMATION.
ALSO...GRAPHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR SURGE...WIND...TORNADO AND HEAVY RAINFALL
INDUCED FLOODING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GHLS AND CLICK ON THE MOBILE AREA

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF IDA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO LAY DOWN AFTER THAT TIME.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON IDA.

MEDLIN