River Flood Warning 76, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 100416
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY. 

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. 

  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 

  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES. 
  SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY. 

  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

.ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO
 CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MANY RIVERS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC097-101851-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0076.091110T1048Z-091110T1851Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.091110T1048Z.091110T1200Z.091110T1251Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 7AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.0 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 4.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
AT 4 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS BEGINS AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE 
RAILROAD WHEN THE LEVEL REACHES 5 FEET.  

$$

ALC003-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0069.091110T2248Z-091111T0748Z/
/FSHA1.1.ER.091110T2248Z.091111T0000Z.091111T0148Z.UU/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.1 FEET 
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 11.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC033-091-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0070.091111T0414Z-091111T2159Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.091111T0414Z.091111T0600Z.091111T1559Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 8PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0071.091110T2244Z-091111T0700Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.091110T2244Z.091111T0000Z.091111T0100Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 12.4 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0072.091112T1200Z-091114T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091112T1200Z.091113T0000Z.091113T1800Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 17.2 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0073.091111T0951Z-091113T0000Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.091111T0951Z.091112T0000Z.091112T1800Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 12.8 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

FLC091-113-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0074.091111T0900Z-091112T0200Z/
/MLNF1.1.ER.091111T0900Z.091111T1200Z.091111T2000Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.6 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 10.2 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

FLC091-110415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0075.091111T1048Z-091113T0900Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.091111T1048Z.091112T0000Z.091113T0300Z.NO/
1016 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
* AT 9PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 5 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 8.6 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 101517
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
917 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...
 
  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC097-101949-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-091110T1949Z/
/SARA1.1.ER.091110T1119Z.091110T1330Z.091110T1349Z.NO/
917 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 7AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
AT 4.0 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS BEGINS AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE 
RAILROAD WHEN THE LEVEL REACHES 5 FEET.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...IDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
INCREASING SHEAR...DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...AND COOLER GULF
WATERS HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE STORM IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE EXTRATROPICAL.
HOWEVER...A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY A
SIGN OF THE SYSTEM STILL BEING WARM CORE...WITH THE CONVECTION
LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH.

IDA IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH THE STORM WEAKENING...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY
RAIN...COASTAL FLOODING...AND WIND THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
STORM TRACK BEING SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE STORM SURGE IN THE MOBILE BAY AREA...TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4-6
FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT 3-5 FT ALONG SOUTHERN BALDWIN
COUNTY AND 3-4 ACROSS NW FL. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS DAUPHIN ISLAND AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
AS THE DAY AND NIGHT PROGRESS.

3-6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS STILL LOOK GOOD.
HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
TRANSITIONS TO A LEFT OF TRACK SCENARIO AS THE TROPICAL STORM BEGINS
TO FEEL BAROCLINIC EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND THE
INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WE MAY VERY WELL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE SE
MS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.

AS FAR AS WIND POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
TO REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS
THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE STORM...MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN
GUSTS VERSUS SUSTAINED...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE ALL TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNINGS AS IS AND REASSESS WITH THE 3
PM NHC ADVISORY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HLS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. MORE
DETAILS TO FOLLOW WITH THE REGULAR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THE STEADY RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER
     BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
     MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WILCOX.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL
SANTA      ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND
SANTA      ROSA.

MS...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:      COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20      NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM      20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS      FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-101500-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
140 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

   UNTIL IDA HAS MOVED INLAND PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT FROM THE NWS IN MOBILE FOR DETAILED LOCAL INFORMATION.
ALSO...GRAPHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITE FOR SURGE...WIND...TORNADO AND HEAVY RAINFALL
INDUCED FLOODING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GHLS AND CLICK ON THE MOBILE AREA

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED UNTIL
IDA HAS PASSED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF IDA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO LAY DOWN AFTER THAT TIME.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MID-WEEK
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON IDA.

MEDLIN