Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 280513
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ALC023-025-129-MSC041-153-280522-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-090328T0530Z/
WASHINGTON AL-CLARKE AL-CHOCTAW AL-GREENE MS-WAYNE MS-
1212 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...
NORTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW...WEST CENTRAL CLARKE AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A NEW SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3180 8813 3152 8794 3126 8863 3146 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 245DEG 44KT 3158 8820

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT LAID AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THAT HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY. THAT
BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. A ZONE
FROM STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MOBILE COUNTY
HAS RECEIVED 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH HAS
CAUSED PROBLEMS ALONG THE ESCATAWPA RIVER. OTHER RIVERS ARE ALSO
RUNNING AT ELEVATED LEVELS OR ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 PM
SATURDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL COME
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT...PRECEDED BY A SQUALL
LINE...WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND TO THE ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AROUND 6
AM. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS TO LEAD
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALONG
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATER
TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...THE HEAVY RAINS
WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RIVER AND FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD HAVE A METHOD TO HEAR
WEATHER INFORMATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND BE
PREPARED FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND
TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. /13

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS
LEFT AS IS...WITH ALL THE CONCENTRATION IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS THAT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS EVENING. STRONGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS. LIFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY...ENDING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  68  43  61 /  90  80  10  00
PENSACOLA   63  68  47  62 /  90  90  10  05
DESTIN      66  68  49  62 /  80  90  10  05
EVERGREEN   61  69  42  61 /  90  90  10  00
WAYNESBORO  60  66  39  61 /  90  70  10  00
CAMDEN      61  69  41  60 /  90  90  10  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

13.JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-281200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE COAST TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
EVENING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE NUMEROUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THEN CONTINUES MOVING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
BY AROUND 1 PM SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES AREAWIDE...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
SOME 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
MANY SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVER AT NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN AROUND 6 AM AND NOON.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON SATURDAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END. HOWEVER...AREA RIVERS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER STAGES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OF 7 TO
10 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION FOR SMALLER MARINE CRAFT ON
SATURDAY. A RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA
BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FLASH
FLOODING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES.

PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ064-280315-
LOWER BALDWIN-
934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUTH OF WEEKS BAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
TURKEY BRANCH...MAGNOLIA SPRINGS...BON SECOUR...OAK AND FOLEY THROUGH
1015 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1021 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             ELSANOR                 30.55N 87.58W
03/27/2009  E1.75 INCH       BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DONF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ062-064-280430-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...
1040 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 1036 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BATTLES WHARF TO 2 MILES NORTH OF
FORT MORGAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MONTROSE...DAPHNE...MALBIS...SPANISH FORT...TURKEY BRANCH...MAGNOLIA
SPRINGS...STAPLETON AND STEELWOOD THROUGH 1130 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.