Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS A.M. HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF DEPOSITING LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS.
DANGEROUS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD IN THE NEAR TERM. STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS AND AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO POSSIBLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN COMING DOWN WITH THIS MORNINGS
STORMS...THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING WILL
PIVOT NORTHWARD TODAY...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS...WITH PASSAGE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID DAY TODAY. GRIDDED WEATHER MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON...WITH
THREAT GOING DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. A MORE
QUIET NIGHT COMING UP AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
STARTS TO NOSE IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST. /10

.LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO
SHORT TERM CONCERNS. MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS ACTIVE. NEXT RAIN EVENT
SETTING UP TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MADE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED
RANGE TEMPERATURES. /10

&&

.AVIATION 12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH PASSAGE OF TSTMS AND +RA. HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE CROSSWINDS. CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFT 18Z.
/10

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY MID DAY...ENDING
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY...A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY. BUT DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE CONCERNS AS FUEL/SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  43  67  43 /  70  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   68  47  66  46 /  90  05  05  05
DESTIN      70  50  66  50 /  90  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   67  45  65  38 /  90  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  68  41  62  36 /  70  05  00  00
CAMDEN      65  44  63  38 /  90  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-291200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
430 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH
EARLY TODAY...

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF DEPOSITING LARGE
HAIL. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DANGEROUS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD IN THE NEAR TERM. STORMS WILL
BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS WELL. DUE TO THE
SATURATED SOILS AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO POSSIBLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN
COMING DOWN WITH THIS MORNINGS STORMS...THE LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH. SOME ROADS WILL BE FOUND TO BE IMPASSABLE
OR WASHED OUT.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL ALSO PREVAIL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID DAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...AREA RIVERS WILL START TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN STAGE DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AREA RIVERS WILL SEE ELEVATED STAGES INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER
QUANTIFIED ON LATER PACKAGES. A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOLINO                  30.72N 87.33W
03/28/2009                   ESCAMBIA           FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ISOLATED FLOODING REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
            ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

0425 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E GRAND BAY           30.48N 88.29W
03/28/2009                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING ALONG I-10 NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
            AND ALABAMA STATE LINE.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
536 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     HAIL             RED OAK                 31.14N 86.46W
03/28/2009  M2.75 INCH       COVINGTON          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN RED OAK.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BERRYDALE               30.90N 87.02W
03/28/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES...POLES AND TREES DOWN NEAR HWY 87 AND HWY 4
            NEAR BERRYDALE.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RED OAK                 31.14N 86.46W
03/28/2009                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN RED OAK

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORALA                 31.00N 86.33W
03/28/2009                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN FLORALA.

0529 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORALA                 31.00N 86.33W
03/28/2009                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ON A TRAILER IN FLORALA.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LOXLEY                  30.62N 87.75W
03/28/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF ROADWAYS IN BALDWIN COUNTY.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     HAIL             EGLIN AFB               30.46N 86.55W
03/28/2009  E0.88 INCH       OKALOOSA           FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL SIZE REPORTED ON EGLIN AFB SOUTH OF DUKE FIELD
            ALONG HWY 85.

&&

CACERES