River Flood Warning 116, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 160429
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.

  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
MISSISSIPPI...
 
  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

  BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.
 
  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.
 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES. 

  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
 
  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX 
  COUNTIES. 

  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON COUNTY.

  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX 
  COUNTIES. 

  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES.
 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
 
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 

SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES. 

ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA RIVERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-170429-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-091217T1942Z/
/FLMA1.3.ER.000000T0000Z.091215T2200Z.091217T1342Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 4PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19 FEET 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

ALC053-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0100.000000T0000Z-091218T0717Z/
/BWMA1.2.ER.091215T0630Z.091215T2300Z.091218T0117Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

MSC039-041-111-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.2.ER.091213T1722Z.091217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.4 FEET 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 24 FEET, SOME COUNTY ROADS IN THE AREA WILL BECOME FLOODED.  


$$

MSC039-041-153-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.2.ER.091213T1016Z.091216T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 26 FEET, FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS WHEN THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 
26 FEET.  

$$

MSC039-041-059-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.2.ER.091215T0415Z.091217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 24 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS AND THE OLD BUSINESS SECTION OF MERRILL WILL 
SUBSIDE AS THE RIVER LEVEL DROPS BELOW 23 FEET.  

$$

ALC097-160529-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-091216T0400Z/
/SARA1.3.ER.091215T0215Z.091215T1430Z.091215T2200Z.NR/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* UNTIL THIS EVENING 
* AT 4PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.


$$

ALC003-FLC033-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-091219T0651Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.091215T1528Z.091217T0000Z.091219T0051Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-091218T2230Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.091217T0000Z.091218T1630Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 12 FEET, RESIDENCE DOWNSTREAM AT SEMINOLE LANDING SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
POSSIBLE FLOODING AS THE GAGE RISES TO THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-091219T0148Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.091212T0925Z.091216T1200Z.091218T1948Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 35.8 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC023-025-129-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-091219T1312Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.091212T2245Z.091216T0600Z.091219T0712Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC047-099-131-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-091218T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.091215T2302Z.091216T0300Z.091217T1800Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 67.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC025-099-131-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0106.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.091214T1855Z.091217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 45.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 46.8 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.


$$

ALC039-053-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-091220T1300Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.091215T1238Z.091217T0000Z.091220T0700Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091214T0915Z.091217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.5 FEET, FLOODING OF FARM AND PASTURE LANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE 
RIVER LEVEL DROPS...BUT SOME FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0108.000000T0000Z-091217T0824Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.091215T0310Z.091215T2030Z.091217T0224Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING.
  

$$

FLC091-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0113.091216T1800Z-091218T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.091216T1800Z.091217T1200Z.091218T1200Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 8.2 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0118.091217T1500Z-091220T1200Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.091217T1500Z.091218T1800Z.091220T0600Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 12.3 FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.9 FEET, SOME MINOR OVERFLOW OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  WATER WILL 
ENTER SOME YARDS ALONG ANTIOCH ROAD IN MILLIGAN.  

$$

ALC053-161600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0115.091216T0429Z-091216T1600Z/
/BCNA1.3.ER.091215T0207Z.091215T1000Z.091216T1500Z.NR/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET
* FORECASTED FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

ALC003-160459-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-091216T1912Z/
/FSHA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET

$$

FLC091-113-160459-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0117.000000T0000Z-091217T1200Z/
/MLNF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF A KMEI TO KHEZ LINE...GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY. WITH THE
HELP OF SOME JET DYNAMICS...FROM A JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM OVER
SOUTHERN TX AND ANOTHER OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE AREA. WITH FFW VALUES VERY LOW...MORE FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AREAL FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS OF
THE FA...THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS
TODAY...TRANSFERRING TO THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM INTO THE EXTENDED. MOST THE DETAILS ARE FROM THE
GFS...THOUGH HAVE BUMPED THE POPS UP THIS EVENING...TAKING A HINT
FROM THE NAM(WHICH TAKEN FACE VALUE IS OVER-BLOWN). /16

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF
ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF ON
THIS EVOLUTION...WHICH HAS HAD THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR ENHANCED OVERRUNNING FLOW.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INITIALLY HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON
THURSDAY...300-305K...IS FOLLOWED BY STRONGER UPGLIDE FROM 290-305K
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MEX
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IS WRINGING OUT EVEN MORE PRECIP. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GULF LOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHWARD UP THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF EARLY ON DEGRADES SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MEX POPS WHICH START WITH
GOOD CHANCE ON FRIDAY TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY...THEN
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT.  DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL MOVE A STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING
VARIABILITY AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AM
ACCEPTING THE COLDER MEX TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS ARE AT OR NEAR BANKFULL DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD INUNDATION FLOODING
WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT ARE AT
BANKFULL. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION. RIVERS AND CREEKS CAN
RISE QUICKLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

A FEW RIVER FLOOD FORECASTS WERE UPGRADED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE
SEVERITY ON MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
ONE SUCH RIVER WAS THE CONECUH RIVER AT RIVER FALLS. THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 45 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
CAUSE FLOODING OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 AND WOULD BE NEAR A HISTORICAL
CREST. THE FIFTH HIGHEST HISTORICAL CREST WAS 45.90 FEET IN 1913.

BAYOU SARA HAS CONTINUED TO RISE OVER NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WHICH IS WELL INTO THE MODERATE STAGE. BAYOU SARA IS AFFECTED
BY RUNOFF AND TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS. BAYOU SARA SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO
FALL LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER AREA RIVERS THAT ARE EXPECTING TO
REACH MODERATE FLOOD ARE...BIG ESCAMBIA AT FLOMATON...MURDER CREEK
AT BREWTON...LEAF RIVER AT MCLAIN...AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AT
LEAKESVILLE.

THE PASCAGOULA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 24.5 FEET TONIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND PORTIONS OF THE OLD BUSINESS
SECTION OF MERRILL WOULD BECOME FLOODED. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON ALABAMA RIVER AT MILLERS FERRY...ALABAMA RIVER AT THE
CLAIBORNE DAM...PERDIDO RIVER AT BARRINEAU PARK...STYX RIVER AT
ELSANOR...TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT COFFEEVILLE...TOMBIGBEE AT
LEROY...CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON...ESCAMBIA RIVER AT CENTURY...THE
BLACKWATER RIVER AT BAKER...AND THE SHOAL RIVER AT CRESTVIEW.

SEVERAL OTHER AREA RIVERS THAT ARE IN ACTION STAGE THIS MORNING ARE
THE MOBILE RIVER AT THE BARRY STEAM PLANT...TALLAHALA CREEK AT
RUNNELSTOWN...FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL...YELLOW RIVER NEAR
MILLIGAN...AND THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK AT MILTON.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING...PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...AND RIVER
FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE.
04/KC

&&

.MARINE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TODAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL START
ACROSS THE LAND AREA THIS MORNING...THEN ACROSS AL/NW FL COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. /16

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP LOW CIGS/VISBYS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. /16

&&

.FIRE...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.  AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE SEVENTIES THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES ON WEDNESDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  44  59  38 / 100  50  05  10
PENSACOLA   68  47  61  43 / 100  50  05  10
DESTIN      70  54  63  46 / 100  50  05  10
EVERGREEN   64  41  58  36 / 100  20  05  05
WAYNESBORO  62  39  55  32 / 100  10  00  05
CAMDEN      63  40  56  34 / 100  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   67  46  62  39 / 100  50  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-161200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
642 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING. MURDER
CREEK IS NOW AT MAJOR FLOOD. SEVERE FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN BREWTON
AS HISTORICAL VALUES ARE BEING APPROACHED AND ECLIPSED. BREWTON AND
BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE FLOODING
WHILE BURNT CORN CREEK...MAJOR FLOODING. THE LATTER IS CRESTING AND
MAY BEGIN A SLOW FALL LATER TODAY. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. AS ALWAYS...SEEK HIGHER GROUND AND YOU ARE ADVISED TO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADS!

OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE RAINS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  ALSO...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WAS
MOVING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO MONROEVILLE TO
ANADALUSIA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MOVING OUT OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THESE AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM RICHTON TO MCINTOSH TO
CASTLEBERRY TO ANADALUSIA. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS.

BY LATE MORNING...A DEVELOPING THIRD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY...SO DO NOT LET TEMPORARY DECREASES IN COVERAGE FOOL YOU.

SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH BUT HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE NOT PREFERRED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THIS IS STILL A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION WHICH IS WHY OUR REGION
REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH. ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN FLASH FLOODING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FROM EARLY EVENING ON FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE MORE RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
MUCH RAINFALL SETS UP...AND WHERE...THIS COULD EXACERBATE REGIONAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOME MODELS INDICATE
THAT UP

A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.  MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF TWO MORNINGS WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE INTERIOR TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTINUED ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS
REQUESTED DUE TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE ONGOING FLOOD
SITUATION.

JMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
433 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            4 WNW NEW AUGUSTA       31.23N 89.10W
12/14/2009                   PERRY              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERRY COUNTY 911 REPORTED WATER OVER MCKENIZE ROAD JUST
            NORTHWEST OF NEW AUGUSTA.

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW DOZIER             31.47N 86.39W
12/14/2009                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ALONG HWY 29 NEAR THE
            COVINGTON AND CRENSHAW COUNTY LINES.

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE BRANTLEY          31.55N 86.20W
12/14/2009                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWELL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY.

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE HIGHLAND HOME      31.94N 86.30W
12/14/2009                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOGNOLIA SHORES ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE
            ROAD.

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SSE BRANTLEY          31.49N 86.21W
12/14/2009                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOWER BOZEMAN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE
            ROADWAY.

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW RUTLEDGE           31.68N 86.36W
12/14/2009                   CRENSHAW           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWANNER BRIDGE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE
            ROADWAY.

0542 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N BAY MINETTE         30.96N 87.79W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BALDWIN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED THAT THE ON RAMPS TO
            INTERSTATE 65 ARE UNDER WATER.

0542 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE BAY MINETTE       30.91N 87.72W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 31 ARE UNDER WATER.

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATMORE                  31.02N 87.49W
12/14/2009                   ESCAMBIA           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESCAMBIA COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN
            ATMORE. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE FLOODED AND SEVERAL CARS ARE
            STRANDED.

0555 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ANDALUSIA               31.31N 86.48W
12/14/2009                   COVINGTON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN COVINGTON COUNTY.
            SEVERAL ROADS IN THE COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BREWTON             31.12N 87.07W
12/14/2009                   ESCAMBIA           AL   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERS DOUGLAS AVE NEAR DOWNTOWN BREWTON.

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATMORE                  31.02N 87.49W
12/14/2009                   ESCAMBIA           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ATMORE POLICE REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE CITY OF
            ATMORE. NUMEROUS HOMES ARE FLOODED. MANY ROADS IN ATMORE
            ARE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL CARS ARE STRANDED IN
            THE STREETS.

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      I65 AND CR 47           31.02N 87.66W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 47 AT INTERSTATE 65 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BAY MINETTE             30.88N 87.77W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BALDWIN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED ALL EXIT RAMPS ALONG
            INTERSTATE 65 IN BALDWIN COUNTY ARE FLOODED.

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROSSROADS              30.83N 87.86W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 225 NEAR BRUCE BEVERAGE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER ON THE ROAD.

0802 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW JAY                30.88N 87.21W
12/14/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SANTA ROSA 911 REPORTED THAT A GARAGE/SHED WAS DAMAGED ON
            J H CARR ROAD NEAR JAY.

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W EVERGREEN           31.43N 86.97W
12/14/2009                   CONECUH            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALABAMA STATE TROOPERS REPORTED HIGH WATER ON HIGHWAY 84
            JUST WEST OF EVERGREEN.

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW NEW AUGUSTA       31.23N 89.11W
12/14/2009                   PERRY              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERRY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FOOT OF WATER COVERING
            OLD RIVER ROAD.

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MUNSON             30.84N 86.85W
12/14/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 4 NEAR MUNSON.

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MOBILE AIRPORT     30.70N 88.26W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED THAT WATER COVERS A
            PORTION OF TANNER WILLIAMS ROAD JUST EAST OF SNOW ROAD.

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BAY MINETTE             30.88N 87.77W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BALDWIN COUNTY EMA HAS OPENED A SHELTER FOR RESIDENTS WHO
            ARE UNABLE TO REACH THEIR HOMES DUE TO HIGH WATER ON AREA
            ROADS.

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SARALAND                30.82N 88.07W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SARALAND POLICE REPORTED THAT SCOTT DRIVE IS CLOSE DUE TO
            WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SARALAND                30.82N 88.07W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SARALAND POLICE REPORTED THAT HARRIS AVE IS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

1032 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N PERDIDO             31.03N 87.62W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING MANY ROADWAYS IN RABURN AND THE PERIDIDO
            AREA INCLUDING COUNTY ROAD 61. SEVERAL ROADS ARE REPORTED
            TO BE IMPASSABLE.

&&

KC