Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS74 KMOB 150208
FFSMOB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
808 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALC003-150345-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-091215T0345Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BALDWIN AL-
808 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST FOR 
NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 801 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. BALDWIN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE 
REPORTS THAT ALL INTERSTATE 65 EXIT RAMPS IN BALDWIN COUNTY ARE 
FLOODED. NUMEROUS OTHER ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY ARE 
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. THERE ALSO HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF ROADS 
WASHED OUT IN RABUN. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN 
BALDWIN COUNTY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 
AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR THE INTERSTATE 65 
AREA OF THE COUNTY AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE 
THE FLOODING SITUATION. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TENSAW... 
REDTOWN...BAY MINETTE...STOCKTON...AND RABUN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE AT
AREA CODE 2 5 1...AND THEN 6 3 3 6 4 4 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 8800 3084 8795 3089 8799 3095 8793
      3098 8797 3116 8795 3122 8787 3121 8785
      3124 8786 3124 8784 3126 8785 3128 8779
      3130 8779 3130 8771 3123 8761 3101 8761
      3099 8759 3087 8763 3084 8760 3079 8795

$$

JFB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST OBS IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INDICATING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL TAP INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL EASILY CAUSE FLOODING AS THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN A
THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. /13

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP A GULF LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GULF COAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE CAVEAT THAT HIGHER
POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE GULF LOW...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND
SENDS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. /13

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DONT EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MORNING TUESDAY. NOT A
LOT OF REPORTS FROM THE MARINE AREA BUT LOCAL WEB CAMS ALONG THE
BEACHES SHOW LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION IN SYNOPSIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES FOLLOWING THE
TUESDAY COLD FRONT AND KEEP THE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND AROUND
OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  63  41  62 /  90  90  20  00
PENSACOLA   64  68  46  63 /  90  90  30  05
DESTIN      64  69  48  64 /  70  80  40  05
EVERGREEN   59  62  38  60 /  90  90  20  05
WAYNESBORO  53  57  36  57 /  80  80  10  05
CAMDEN      57  59  37  58 /  90  80  10  05
CRESTVIEW   62  67  45  65 /  80  90  30  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE AREA...WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
BELOW ONE HALF MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY RISING ABOVE ONE MILE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE HALF MILE THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX IN...BRINGING HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WITH
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE WEEKENDS RAINS...THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA...WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. A GENERAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCUMULATE BEGINNING LATER TODAY...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA ARE
CURRENT IN FLOOD STAGE...WITH SEVERAL MORE ABOVE ACTION STAGE...AN
INDICATION OF NUISANCE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY...ENDING AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AGAIN CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FOUR INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN...MORE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE ACTION AND FLOODING
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
524 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALZ059-062-150030-
ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
BAY MINETTE
524 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA THROUGH 630 PM...

AT 520 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA AND NORTHERN
BALDWIN COUNTY. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME OF THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE... LITTLE
ROCK...ATMORE...RABUN...AND STOCKTON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PROLIFIC RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.