River Flood Warning 115, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 151132
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
532 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-161132-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCNA1.3.ER.091215T0207Z.091215T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
532 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 5 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23 FEET 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET


$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 151228
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
628 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...
 
  BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-161228-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0115.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCNA1.3.ER.091215T0207Z.091215T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
628 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 6 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.9 FEET 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET
  THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL TODAY.


$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 160429
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
FLORIDA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.

  BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
MISSISSIPPI...
 
  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY. 

  BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.
 
  PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.
 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES. 

  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
 
  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM AFFECTING DALLAS...MONROE AND WILCOX 
  COUNTIES. 

  CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON AFFECTING COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES.

  YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING COVINGTON COUNTY.

  ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM AFFECTING CLARKE...MONROE AND WILCOX 
  COUNTIES. 

  ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

  LEAF NEAR MCLAIN AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTIES.
 
  CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
 
  PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
  ROSA COUNTIES. 

SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN AFFECTING OKALOOSA AND SANTA ROSA 
  COUNTIES. 

ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY AFFECTING ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA RIVERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-170429-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-091217T1942Z/
/FLMA1.3.ER.000000T0000Z.091215T2200Z.091217T1342Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK AT FLOMATON
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 4PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19 FEET 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

ALC053-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0100.000000T0000Z-091218T0717Z/
/BWMA1.2.ER.091215T0630Z.091215T2300Z.091218T0117Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR THE MURDER CREEK AT BREWTON
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

MSC039-041-111-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.2.ER.091213T1722Z.091217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.4 FEET 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 24 FEET, SOME COUNTY ROADS IN THE AREA WILL BECOME FLOODED.  


$$

MSC039-041-153-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.2.ER.091213T1016Z.091216T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 26 FEET, FLOODING AT THE HIGHWAY BRIDGE BEGINS WHEN THE LEVEL RISES ABOVE 
26 FEET.  

$$

MSC039-041-059-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.2.ER.091215T0415Z.091217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASCAGOULA AT MERRILL
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 24 FEET, FLOODING OF STREETS AND THE OLD BUSINESS SECTION OF MERRILL WILL 
SUBSIDE AS THE RIVER LEVEL DROPS BELOW 23 FEET.  

$$

ALC097-160529-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-091216T0400Z/
/SARA1.3.ER.091215T0215Z.091215T1430Z.091215T2200Z.NR/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* UNTIL THIS EVENING 
* AT 4PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.0 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.


$$

ALC003-FLC033-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-091219T0651Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.091215T1528Z.091217T0000Z.091219T0051Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

ALC003-FLC033-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-091218T2230Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.091217T0000Z.091218T1630Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 12 FEET, RESIDENCE DOWNSTREAM AT SEMINOLE LANDING SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
POSSIBLE FLOODING AS THE GAGE RISES TO THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-091219T0148Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.091212T0925Z.091216T1200Z.091218T1948Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 35.8 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC023-025-129-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-091219T1312Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.091212T2245Z.091216T0600Z.091219T0712Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC047-099-131-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-091218T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.091215T2302Z.091216T0300Z.091217T1800Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 67.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 66 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.

$$

ALC025-099-131-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0106.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.091214T1855Z.091217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALABAMA RIVER NEAR CLAIBORNE DAM
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 7PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 45.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 46.8 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.


$$

ALC039-053-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-091220T1300Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.091215T1238Z.091217T0000Z.091220T0700Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONECUH RIVER AT BREWTON
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC053-FLC033-170428-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.091214T0915Z.091217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.5 FEET, FLOODING OF FARM AND PASTURE LANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE 
RIVER LEVEL DROPS...BUT SOME FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0108.000000T0000Z-091217T0824Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.091215T0310Z.091215T2030Z.091217T0224Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING.
  

$$

FLC091-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0113.091216T1800Z-091218T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.091216T1800Z.091217T1200Z.091218T1200Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 8.2 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 FEET, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-170428-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0118.091217T1500Z-091220T1200Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.091217T1500Z.091218T1800Z.091220T0600Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT MILLIGAN
* FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 12.3 FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.9 FEET, SOME MINOR OVERFLOW OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR.  WATER WILL 
ENTER SOME YARDS ALONG ANTIOCH ROAD IN MILLIGAN.  

$$

ALC053-161600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0115.091216T0429Z-091216T1600Z/
/BCNA1.3.ER.091215T0207Z.091215T1000Z.091216T1500Z.NR/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET
* FORECASTED FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

ALC003-160459-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-091216T1912Z/
/FSHA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET

$$

FLC091-113-160459-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0117.000000T0000Z-091217T1200Z/
/MLNF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING 
* AT 9PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. FLOODING HAS
BEEN WIDESPREAD FROM MOBILE COUNTY NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO
CRENSHAW COUNTY. THE SIMPLE FACT IS THAT WE CANNOT TAKE ANY MORE
WATER AT THIS JUNCTURE GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS EVENING COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. UNFORTUNATELY...
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH MORE IS ON THE WAY.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SOUTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OFFSHORE.
WHILE THIS HAS ENDED THE SFC BASED CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING...A
LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW BLANKETS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION...
AIDED BY A 30 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET...RIDING ATOP THE NOW
INCREASINGLY STABLE SFC LAYER. WE ARE ALSO SEEING RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SW MISSISSIPPI...AS THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. PRECIP IS ALSO
BEING GENERATED BY A DEPARTING 120 KT JET MOVING INTO THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS. LOW TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THIS PRECIP HAS
NOWHERE TO HEAD EXCEPT IN OUR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE ARE
EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE.

IT DOES NOT LOOK TO GET ANY BETTER TOMORROW UNFORTUNATELY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA BY 12Z...MOVING
OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN. BY 12Z...A VERY POWERFUL 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. AS THE
SFC-850 MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE JET NOSES IN...FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INCREASE. THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY
FURTHER EXACERBATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATERS START OFF AT 1.6-1.8 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH 00Z WED.

MORE INFORMATION TO COME WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
06 TAF CYCLE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH.  34/JFB

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 310 PM/

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST OBS IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INDICATING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL TAP INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL EASILY CAUSE FLOODING AS THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN A
THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. /13

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP A GULF LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GULF COAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE CAVEAT THAT HIGHER
POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE GULF LOW...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND
SENDS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. /13

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DONT EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MORNING TUESDAY. NOT A
LOT OF REPORTS FROM THE MARINE AREA BUT LOCAL WEB CAMS ALONG THE
BEACHES SHOW LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION IN SYNOPSIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES FOLLOWING THE
TUESDAY COLD FRONT AND KEEP THE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND AROUND
OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  63  41  62 /  90  90  20  00
PENSACOLA   64  68  46  63 /  90  90  30  05
DESTIN      64  69  48  64 /  70  80  40  05
EVERGREEN   59  62  38  60 /  90  90  20  05
WAYNESBORO  53  57  36  57 /  80  80  10  05
CAMDEN      57  59  37  58 /  90  80  10  05
CRESTVIEW   62  67  45  65 /  80  90  30  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-160900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1215 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD INUNDATION FLOODING...WITH EMBEDDED FLASH FLOODING...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA THROUGH LATE TODAY.  SOME AREA RIVERS ARE
APPROACHING THE UPPER END OF MODERATE FLOODING.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
THROUGH 6 AM. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT CAUSING EVEN MORE VERY SERIOUS TO EXTREME
FLOODING.  ALMOST EVERY COUNTY OVER THE LOCAL AREA CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES BY SUNRISE.  ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE
THREE TO SIX MORE INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
SETUP...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FOCUS. ONCE THIS BEGINS TO
HAPPEN...YOUR LOCAL NWS WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING SPECIFICS.  UNTIL THEN...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD...FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
NWS OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST AND BEGIN TO STALL LATE
THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY
WILL CAUSE MORE RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
MUCH RAINFALL SETS UP...AND WHERE...THIS COULD EXACERBATE REGIONAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MOBILE AIRPORT     30.70N 88.26W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERS A PORTION OF TANNER WILLIAMS ROAD JUST EAST
            OF SNOW ROAD.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1010 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW JAY                30.88N 87.21W
12/14/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SANTA ROSA 911 REPORTED THAT A GARAGE/SHED WAS DAMAGED ON
            J H CARR ROAD NEAR JAY.

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MUNSON             30.84N 86.85W
12/14/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 4 NEAR MUNSON.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1101 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N PERDIDO             31.03N 87.62W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING MANY ROADWAYS IN RABURN AND THE PERIDIDO
            AREA INCLUDING COUNTY ROAD 61. SEVERAL ROADS ARE REPORTED
            TO BE IMPASSABLE.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1214 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAY MINETTE             30.88N 87.77W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BALDWIN COUNTY EMA HAS OPENED A SHELTER FOR RESIDENTS WHO
            ARE UNABLE TO REACH THEIR HOMES DUE TO HIGH WATER ON AREA
            ROADS.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BAY MINETTE             30.88N 87.77W
12/14/2009                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BALDWIN COUNTY EMA HAS OPENED A SHELTER FOR RESIDENTS WHO
            ARE UNABLE TO REACH THEIR HOMES DUE TO HIGH WATER ON AREA
            ROADS.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
106 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATMORE                  31.02N 87.49W
12/14/2009                   ESCAMBIA           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ATMORE POLICE REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE CITY OF
            ATMORE. NUMEROUS HOMES ARE FLOODED. MANY ROADS IN ATMORE
            ARE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL CARS ARE STRANDED IN
            THE STREETS.

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SARALAND                30.82N 88.07W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SARALAND POLICE REPORTED THAT SCOTT DRIVE IS CLOSE DUE TO
            WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SARALAND                30.82N 88.07W
12/14/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SARALAND POLICE REPORTED THAT HARRIS AVE IS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

KC