Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
729 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...

.UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED WW# 74 FROM ZONES AS LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION
WAS SINKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN...NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. /10

.AVIATION 12Z ISSUANCE...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
THIS AM. PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 04 AND 12UTC SATURDAY...FCST TO
REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING +TSRA.
DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS NEAR CONVECTION WILL POSE INCREASED HAZARDS TO
AVIATION OPS. /10

......PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS LAST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION. FORECASTERS EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS WHAT OCCURRED THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...INSTANCES OF
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CONTAINING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. EARLY THIS MORNING...FORECASTERS HAVE OBSERVED
THE HEAVIEST STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 5 TO AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES OCCURRING
IN AN AREA FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CITRONELLE TO WHATELY ALABAMA.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING OVER
LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBANIZED AREAS
SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE DURING THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. SOME DIRT AND
EVEN PAVED ROADS COULD BECOME WASHED OUT AND IMPASSABLE. CONSIDERING
ADDED RAINS IN AREA GAUGES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORM
TOTAL RAINS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. STAY ALERT FOR SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. LONG FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT. /10

.LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED
TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GRIDDED WEATHER AND QPF
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION. BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THEN...RETURN FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY...BRINGING A MODERATION AND WARMUP
IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP
AND INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER GULF
COAST. WENT WITH THE GFS MOS ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR AND LONG
TERM. /10

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY AND END THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE WEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. /23

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS FUELS WILL BE
SATURATED. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  65  72  45 /  70  90  80  10
PENSACOLA   76  66  72  49 /  90  90  90  10
DESTIN      74  68  71  50 / 100  80  90  20
EVERGREEN   74  64  73  45 /  70  90  90  10
WAYNESBORO  76  62  67  41 /  50  90  70  10
CAMDEN      74  64  71  45 /  50  90  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-281200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
505 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY
TODAY AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON...YIELDING ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY.
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF DEPOSITING ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. STORM TOTAL RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
HAVE COME IN AT THREE TO EIGHT INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WHERE UP TO ANOTHER FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. IN GENERAL...MOST WILL SEE AT LEAST TWO
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS EXCESS RUNOFF CAN RESULT IN FLOODING
OVER LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBANIZED AREAS
SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE DURING THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. SOME DIRT AND
EVEN PAVED ROADS COULD BECOME WASHED OUT AND IMPASSABLE.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS
BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OF 7 TO
10 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION FOR SMALLER MARINE CRAFT ON
SATURDAY. A RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA
BEACHES.

WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON SATURDAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL END. HOWEVER...AREA RIVERS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER STAGES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FLASH
FLOODING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES.

PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
936 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHUMUCKLA               30.78N 87.24W
03/27/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO 7 HOMES ON BELL CREEK ROAD. FOUR WITH VERY
            MINOR DAMAGE...TWO WITH TREES ON THE ROOF AND ONE WITH 30
            PERCENT OF THE ROOF OFF. SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO DOWN IN
            THE AREA. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

CULLEN

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