Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 270950
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ALC003-035-053-FLC033-113-271015-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-090327T1015Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-CONECUH AL-BALDWIN AL-ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
450 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR SANTA ROSA...ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHERN CONECUH
AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 448 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CASTLEBERRY TO PENSACOLA NAVAL BASE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERVIEW...KIRKLAND...EAST BREWTON AND CASTLEBERRY BY 455 AM
  CDT...
  NYMPH...ROCK HILL...DIXONVILLE AND ORIOLE BEACH BY 500 AM CDT...
  JOHNSONVILLE AND MILTON NEAR WHITING FIELD BY 505 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3121 8742 3124 8738 3130 8739 3136 8673
      3040 8689 3039 8697 3039 8690 3037 8690
      3031 8726 3035 8730 3033 8731 3030 8750
      3034 8748 3034 8750 3030 8752 3029 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0950Z 259DEG 40KT 3130 8708 3035 8725

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
329 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXTREMELY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE NEAR TERM AS A VIGOROUS
TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY...A COUPLED JET STREAK (90-110 KT) AT
HIGH LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT IS ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER FORCING...RESULTING IN
CATEGORICAL COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DOPPLER WEATHER
VWPS SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY 85 JET STREAK AT 50 KNOTS AT 5 KFT. THIS
IN TANDEM WITH A BACKED MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW...FAVORS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. FORECASTERS
ALSO EXPECT INSTANCES OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CONTAINING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. EARLY THIS MORNING...FORECASTERS HAVE OBSERVED
THE HEAVIEST STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 5 TO AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES OCCURRING
IN AN AREA FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CITRONELLE TO WHATELY ALABAMA.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING OVER
LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBANIZED AREAS
SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE DURING THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. SOME DIRT
AND EVEN PAVED ROADS COULD BECOME WASHED OUT AND IMPASSABLE.
CONSIDERING ADDED RAINS IN AREA GAUGES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. STAY ALERT
FOR SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. LONG FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. /10

.LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS EARLY SATURDAY AS LAST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GRIDDED WEATHER AND QPF TRANSLATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION. BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THEN...RETURN
FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY...BRINGING A MODERATION AND WARMUP IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP AND
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER GULF COAST. WENT
WITH THE GFS MOS ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR AND LONG TERM. /10

&&

.AVIATION 06Z ISSUANCE...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND +RA WITH ITS PASSAGE BEFORE 15Z. STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL ALSO POSE A
HAZARD TO AVIATION OPS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY AND END THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE WEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. /23

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS FUELS WILL BE
SATURATED. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  65  72  45 / 100  90  80  10
PENSACOLA   76  66  72  49 / 100  90  90  10
DESTIN      74  68  71  50 /  90  80  90  20
EVERGREEN   74  64  73  45 / 100  90  90  10
WAYNESBORO  76  62  67  41 / 100  90  70  10
CAMDEN      74  64  71  45 / 100  90  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-271900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE AREA AND A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PERIODICALLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP TO 8 INCHES OVER SOME LOCALES. MOST AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST THREE INCHES ENDING SATURDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A CONTINUED HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL PREVAIL ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY AN EVEN GREATER
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

OUR LATEST FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ENDING SATURDAY. ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF FORECAST HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS AND THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CAUSE MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FLASH FLOODING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES.

PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS  WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TORNADO          1 E APPLETON            31.22N 87.11W
03/26/2009                   ESCAMBIA           AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO DESTROYED A SMALL BARN...CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE
            TO SEVERAL HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS...AND SNAPPED NUMEROUS
            LARGE PINES.

0800 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE ONYCHA             31.22N 86.27W
03/26/2009  E90 MPH          COVINGTON          AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            TWO MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED AND SEVERAL OTHER STRUCTURES
            DAMAGED...INCLUDING HOMES AND METAL BUILDINGS.

&&

JOHNP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CITRONELLE              31.09N 88.24W
03/27/2009                   MOBILE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CITRONELLE POLICE REPORTED MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED.

0253 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MCINTOSH                31.27N 88.03W
03/27/2009                   WASHINGTON         AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME ROADS REPORTED FLOODED IN MCINTOSH.

0302 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WIGGINS                 30.86N 89.14W
03/27/2009                   STONE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STONE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED WIDESPREAD STREET
            FLOODING IN WIGGINS AND ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S LEAKESVILLE         31.10N 88.56W
03/27/2009                   GREENE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY ON VERNAL RIVER ROAD AT SANDY
            CREEK BRIDGE.

&&

CACERES