Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS...

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS AT 16Z
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAVE DECIDED
TO UP POPS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH AS
WELL.

STORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH THIS MORNING AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 20Z.

JA

SHORT TERM (TDA AND TONIGHT)...

AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AMS COVERS OUR WRN FA ATTM AND THIS
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD EWD TDA ON SW FLO RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING TO 70/LOWER 70S. SCT TSTMS WERE MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER
SW INDIANA AND MOVG ESE. THESE WILL BE AFFECTING SCNTRL INDIANA/
NCNTRL KY IN THE PREDAWN AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...PROPELLED
BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR/MOIST UNSTABLE ADVECTION. MORE
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM ACRS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VLY...AIDED BY SEWD MOVG UPR LEVEL IMPULSES.

IT APPEARS THAT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPR LEVEL TROFS
WORKING WITH AN UNSTABLE AMS AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT INTO OUR FA. SEVERITY OF STORMS IN QUESTION WITH
LIMITED/DECREASING WIND SHEAR THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHC FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTN/EVE TDA/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING FUEL/HEATING. SPC FCSTS EQUAL CHCS FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

MUCH PREFER NAM MOS TEMPS TDA...CANT SEE LOWER 90 READINGS UNDER A
MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS WITH SCT STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A SHIFT IN THE JET STREAM WILL BRING VERY WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID
90S...TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN SINCE LATE JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

PRIOR TO THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS
WEEKEND...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE BROUGHT DISTINCTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS SHOWING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WITH DEWPOINTS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH
DAYS WILL DEPEND ON LOCAL MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY CONVECTION.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED THUNDER IS VERY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A
MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HINT AT A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OR IOWA LATE WEDNESDAY
ALONG AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AT THE NOSE OF AN 850MB JET. THIS
AREA WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH
MENTIONS A CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH WARMISH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 70 EACH
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB
PATTERN. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A
SEASONALLY STRONG TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST SATURDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY...925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM FROM AROUND 23C TO 28C FOR THIS PERIOD. DESPITE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT THE THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

BASED ON FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS...FEEL THAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THIS STRETCH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION (04/18Z TAFS)...

ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LOUISVILLE BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z AND LEX
BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BWG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
STORMS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ076>079-090>092-KYZ029>043-045-048-049-051315-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-
FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN FLASH FLOOD REPORTS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS MORNING. SPOTTERS MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO CALL IN ANY
WIND...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.

INZ083-084-089-KYZ023>028-046-047-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
051315-
DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 /1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN ANY WIND...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN
REPORTS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TWF/JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              38.22N  85.74W
08/04/2009                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            8 INCH LIMB DOWNED AT TV STUDIO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900050

MRC

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