Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 041335
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INC019-043-175-KYC111-041545-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-090804T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON IN-CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-JEFFERSON KY-
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CLARKSVILLE...JEFFERSONVILLE...NEW ALBANY AND 
LOUISVILLE...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
WESTERN JEFFERSON...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 929 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SALEM...
STARLIGHT...ST. JOSEPH...SOUTH BOSTON AND SMEDLEY.

CARS HAVE BEEN REPORTED STRANDED AND FLOATING IN DOWNTOWN NEW 
ALBANY. WATER 1 TO 3 FEET DEEP HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS 
ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOUISVILLE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS 
AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AND DO NOT 
ATTEMT TO DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. OVER FOUR INCHES OF 
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8593 3837 8579 3820 8574 3818 8595
      3821 8597 3825 8596 3828 8601 3830 8602
      3832 8601 3833 8603 3841 8604 3864 8627
      3870 8607

$$

LS

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 041450
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INC019-043-175-KYC111-041500-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-090804T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON IN-CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-JEFFERSON KY-
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN
JEFFERSON...FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A FLOOD WARNING. 
ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS FALL AT THIS TIME FLOOD WATERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER 
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 
THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3851 8593 3837 8579 3820 8574 3818 8595
      3821 8597 3825 8596 3828 8601 3830 8602
      3832 8601 3833 8603 3841 8604 3864 8627
      3870 8607

$$

LS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHORT TERM (TDA AND TONIGHT)...

AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AMS COVERS OUR WRN FA ATTM AND THIS
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD EWD TDA ON SW FLO RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING TO 70/LOWER 70S. SCT TSTMS WERE MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER
SW INDIANA AND MOVG ESE. THESE WILL BE AFFECTING SCNTRL INDIANA/
NCNTRL KY IN THE PREDAWN AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...PROPELLED
BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR/MOIST UNSTABLE ADVECTION. MORE
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM ACRS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VLY...AIDED BY SEWD MOVG UPR LEVEL IMPULSES.

IT APPEARS THAT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPR LEVEL TROFS
WORKING WITH AN UNSTABLE AMS AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT INTO OUR FA. SEVERITY OF STORMS IN QUESTION WITH
LIMITED/DECREASING WIND SHEAR THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHC FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTN/EVE TDA/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING FUEL/HEATING. SPC FCSTS EQUAL CHCS FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

MUCH PREFER NAM MOS TEMPS TDA...CANT SEE LOWER 90 READINGS UNDER A
MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS WITH SCT STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A SHIFT IN THE JET STREAM WILL BRING VERY WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID
90S...TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN SINCE LATE JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

PRIOR TO THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS
WEEKEND...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE BROUGHT DISTINCTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS SHOWING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH WITH DEWPOINTS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH
DAYS WILL DEPEND ON LOCAL MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY CONVECTION.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED THUNDER IS VERY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A
MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HINT AT A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OR IOWA LATE WEDNESDAY
ALONG AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AT THE NOSE OF AN 850MB JET. THIS
AREA WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH
MENTIONS A CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH WARMISH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 70 EACH
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB
PATTERN. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A
SEASONALLY STRONG TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST SATURDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY...925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM FROM AROUND 23C TO 28C FOR THIS PERIOD. DESPITE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT THE THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

BASED ON FORECAST 925MB TEMPERATURES AND 500MB HEIGHTS...FEEL THAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THIS STRETCH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION (04/12Z TAFS)...

A COUPLE OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KENTUCKY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AT 11Z. THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY JUST EAST OF SDF BUT WE WILL MENTION
SEVERAL HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
MOVE ACROSS LEX THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 /330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

DK/JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
823 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              38.22N  85.74W
08/04/2009                   JEFFERSON          KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATED 60 MPH GUST. AT I-64 AND
            HURSTBOURNE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900021

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
826 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTTSBURG              38.69N  85.78W
08/04/2009                   SCOTT              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOWMAN ROAD IS CLOSED BY HIGH WATER BETWEEN SCOTTSBURG
            AND AUSTIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900022

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
834 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SELLERSBURG             38.39N  85.76W
08/04/2009                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RESCUE FROM A VEHICLE IN LAKE SIDE ESTATES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900023

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
838 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ029-034-035-038-045-041315-
BULLITT-FRANKLIN-NELSON-SHELBY-SPENCER-
838 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION...

AT 835 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW CASTLE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE TO VALLEY STATION...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKFORT TO 20
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CONTINUOUS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR TAYLORSVILLE AROUND 850 AM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
112 AND 117.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
28 AND 43.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
839 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CEMENTVILLE         38.36N  85.75W
08/04/2009                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSTATE 65 AT EXIT 9.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900024

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLESTOWN             38.45N  85.67W
08/04/2009                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH STREET IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900025

MRC