River Flood Warning 16, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

WE WILL DROP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656 AT 4 PM AS THAT IS THE
TIME IT WILL EXPIRE.

MCS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656 REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 20Z AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657 UNTIL 00Z.
A COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WE WILL FOLLOW THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS HAS IT HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STORM DEPENDENT. BWG HAS RISEN TO 90 THIS AFTERNOON WHILE OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA READINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 75.

.LONG TERM  (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE DEEPER EASTERN CANADA TROUGH WILL FORCE THE COOL FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. SO WE HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH A MILD MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.

WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETS UP
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TUESDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY DROP INTO THE REGION SO WE WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS THAT
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION (04/18Z TAFS)...

ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LOUISVILLE BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z AND LEX
BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BWG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
STORMS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>033-051945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 /242 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAIN OR FLOODING THIS EVENING.

KYZ023>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-051945-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 /242 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD- TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAIN OR FLOODING THIS EVENING.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ061>064-066-067-070>078-081-082-042045-
ADAIR-ALLEN-BARREN-BUTLER-CASEY-CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-EDMONSON-GREEN-
HART-LINCOLN-LOGAN-METCALFE-MONROE-RUSSELL-SIMPSON-WARREN-
254 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GUST FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 252 PM CDT/352 PM EDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES WEST OF LEITCHFIELD TO 9 MILES EAST OF MUNFORDVILLE TO 6 MILES
NORTH OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

OCCASSIONAL LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL GUST FRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
403 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
08/04/2009                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES SNAPPED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900072

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANCASTER               37.62N  84.58W
08/04/2009                   GARRARD            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR 1295 AND GILLESPIE WITH
            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ON 1295.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900073

AML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
417 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ061>064-066-067-070>078-081-082-042045-
ADAIR-ALLEN-BARREN-BUTLER-CASEY-CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-EDMONSON-GREEN-
HART-LINCOLN-LOGAN-METCALFE-MONROE-RUSSELL-SIMPSON-WARREN-
317 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...GUST FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 252 PM CDT/352 PM EDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES WEST OF LEITCHFIELD TO 9 MILES EAST OF MUNFORDVILLE TO 6 MILES
NORTH OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

OCCASSIONAL LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL GUST FRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LS

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