Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL UPDATE THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
THROUGHOUT...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS WITH THE MCS MOVING
THROUGH. THIS LINE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS
GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION AND MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE
LINE BRIEFLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY...IT SHOULD QUICKLY
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GIVEN THE
MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DCAPE IS VERY HIGH AS
WELL...OVER 1000 J/KG FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. FREEZING LEVELS ARE
HIGH...BUT WET BULB ZERO IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER GIVEN THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE HIGH WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE LINE. NO POP IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE
STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THE MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CAPE
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS. ONE WOULD THINK THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO
THE BUILDING RIDGE. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN EXPECTED
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THAT SAID...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER WITH THE STORM TRACK MOVING NORTH. WILL LIMIT
POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NRN MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE HIGHS
ARE VERY WARM AS EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...MDLS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM RECENTLY.
ALSO...GROUND IS QUITE MOIST WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL. WITH SOME OF
THE HEATING GOING TO EVAPORATING THE MOISTURE...WILL UNDERCUT MOS
SLIGHTLY AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT THU...THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE
HEAT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO SOAR TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT SAT
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS...CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE BAND
OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...AND NEAR THE TRACK OF ANY MCS ORIGINATING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE BEGINS A RETREAT ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS ANY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SW TROUGH ACTIVITY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...OTHER THAN A SLIVER OF SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER (ACCOUNTING FOR LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW)...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL FORM EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE RIDGE RETROGRADING TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS LEAVES THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA IN RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE MTNS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MCS DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN TACT AND BRING A LINE
OF TSRA...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO VCTS WORDING TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST...NNW AT KAVL...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND WIND SHIFT WITH THE CONVECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO AMD
AS IT MOVES IN TO MAKE SURE TIMING IS ACCURATE.

EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS VFR CIGS
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ALL
AREAS VFR FOR NOW...BUT LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...MOVING STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. KHKY
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION...BUT CHC LOW FOR NOW. ANY
CU DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MIXING.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH:

ASHEVILLE (KAVL): 92 SET IN 1933
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA (KGSP): 98 SET IN 1944
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA (KCLT): 102 SET IN 1944

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-004-
005-010-011-191945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
341 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
006>009-012>014-019-191945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
341 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PELZER                  34.64N 82.46W
06/18/2009                   ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN BY WIND.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S GREER               34.90N 82.23W
06/18/2009  E58 MPH          GREENVILLE         SC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            58 MPH GUST MEASURED AT GSP AIRPORT.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
06/18/2009                   RUTHERFORD         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE LIMBS AND STREET SIGNS BLOWN DOWN
            AT HIGHWAY 221 NEAR HIGHWAY 74. ALSO REPORTED LARGE HAIL
            BUT OF UNKNOWN SIZE.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             5 SE EASLEY             34.77N 82.53W
06/18/2009  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY HAIL 5 MILES SE OF EASLEY.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PELZER                  34.64N 82.46W
06/18/2009                   ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TELEPHONE POLES DOWN IN PELZER AND DIME HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.80N 82.68W
06/18/2009                   MADISON            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN MARSHALL.

&&

JPT