Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE FA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS YET
AGAIN TODAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A LITTLE TODAY...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS DON/T HAVE MUCH OF A CAP...WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES AGAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD WARM UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THEY DID ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IT/S HARD TO FIND ANY KIND OF BNDRY IN THE MODELS THAT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
SUSPECTS OF THE MTNS AND ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY/S THAT REMAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME KIND
OF UPSTREAM MCS MOVING INTO THE FA TO REALLY GET CONVECTION GOING
LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM TAKES A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION FROM 21 TO 00 UTC. THERE ISN/T A LOT OF
SUPPORT IN THE HIGH RES WRF RUNS OR THE GFS...BUT I MIGHT AS WELL
HANG MY HAT ON THAT. STRENGTHENING LLVL WIND FIELD IS LIKELY TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER SUNSET. IN FACT...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY
OVER THE REGION AT NIGHT AS THEY HAVE DONE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
I/VE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED MCS ACTIVITY...BUT I/VE STILL KEPT POPS FAIRLY
LOW AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT TODAY. AS LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAID...WET GROUND WILL
MAKE IT HARD TO REACH THE NUMBERS THE MAV IS ADVERTISING...AND I/VE
GONE A LITTLE UNDER THAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THU...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES BUILDING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI...RAISING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE
PLAINS...AND THE RESULT IS AN EAST COAST TROUGH. A WARM FRONT
CONITNUE TO MOVES NORTH AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA FRIDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
GUIDANCE MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT HARD TO SWALLOW GIVEN THE
MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD WERE MADE.
DRYING FROM ALOFT WILL LIMIT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND DESPITE
MODEL SOUNDING INSTABILITY...THE EXPECTATION OF A CAP IN MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD OT NO POPS BEING CARRIED. BY LATE SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND POPS WILL BE SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN MOISTENS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER...THOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
AGAIN...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT HARD TO ACCEPT...WITH THE
MAV CARRYING 100 AT KCLT...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD WERE
MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE GULF STATES TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY...WITH A TROUGH DOWN THE
EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MID WEEK...HOWEVER THE GFS
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH...WHILE THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF
DOES NOT. ON SUNDAY MORNING AN EXITING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...FROM CHS TO MCN...AND BY WEDNESDAY IT
REACHES CENTRAL FL. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO WARRANT SMALL POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA CAPES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY EAST TO FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL THE REST OF THE PACKAGE...AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WEAKENS AND COOL ADVECTION PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH
SCATTERED...DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH 0700 UTC AT KCLT. PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...AND I HAVE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
ALL SITES BY 0800 UTC OR SOONER. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT...FAVORING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.

CIGS WILL LIFT IN A TYPICAL FASHION BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
HEALTHY CU FIELD AROUND IN THE AFTN...AND BY LATE AFTN MORE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE ON THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE IS NO WAY TO NAIL DOWN WHERE EXACTLY
STORMS WILL FORM...SO I/VE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES STARTING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH:

ASHEVILLE (KAVL): 92 SET IN 1933
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA (KGSP): 98 SET IN 1944
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA (KCLT): 102 SET IN 1944

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK/JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY
CLIMATE...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

GAZ010-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>009-013-014-190445-
RABUN-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
1238 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-190445-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
GREENWOOD-
1238 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PICKENS                 34.88N 82.71W
06/17/2009                   PICKENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND PICKENS.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1209 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
06/17/2009                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 320 NEAR CARNESVILLE...HIGHWAY 106
            AND HAYES RD.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     HAIL             3 N RUCKERSVILLE        34.21N 82.79W
06/17/2009  E0.75 INCH       ELBERT             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBERTON                34.11N 82.86W
06/18/2009                   ELBERT             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

SCZ014-180715-
CHESTER-
212 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH
315 AM EDT...

AT 211 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICHBURG...OR 10 MILES EAST OF CHESTER...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GREAT FALLS
  RESERVOIR...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...RICHBURG...GREAT FALLS...FORT
  LAWN AND EDGEMOOR.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

NCZ082-180800-
UNION-
256 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT UNION COUNTY THROUGH 400 AM
EDT...

AT 255 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MINERAL
  SPRINGS...UNIONVILLE...WINGATE...TRINITY...STURDIVANTS...MONROE AND
  MARSHVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07